In 2024 the global average temperature reached almost 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels, the highest on record.
Most of this rise has been attributed to global warming and the El Nino weather system, but scientists have been at a loss to explain around 0.2% of the increase, until some recent research coming out of Germany.
Analysis of satellite data has revealed that there was around 1.5% less cloud cover in 2024 compared to 2023, which is the most obvious explanation for the extra increase in global warming.
The team think if cloud cover had been at the same level last year as it was in 2023 global temperatures would have been around 0.23 degrees cooler.
Clouds reflect sunlight, as you might expect given that this is just bloody obvious at the most basic level of observation: it's immediately cooler down here when the sun goes behind the clouds.
The irony behind fewer clouds...
All of this might be down to natural variation but another theory as to why there are fewer clouds is improved air quality. Pollution can help with cloud formation, and so the cleaner the air, the fewer the clouds.
Hopefully this is just a kind of 'warming transition' as presumably better air quality means there are less warming emissions too and so this is something of a data lag.
But of course climate science is challenging given the huge amount of variables at play, and the fact that every year we find ourselves in new territory as to how these variables interact.
And of course while we have fewer clouds overall, the distribution of this cloud cover is, if anything, more polarised, with more extreme weather systems resulting in more flood events.
So while this general trend might well be true globally, it doesn't feel like it to those on the wrong side of the global warming trend!
And at the end of the day this just sounds like more uncertainty thrown into the mix!
Climate science is obviously not simple as there are so many factors involved. Creating a model with all of them is hard, but some will just dismiss it as not real with no evidence to back that up as it does not fit their agenda. Or they just say their local weather doesn't fit the pattern. When it comes to scientists versus politicians backed by the fossil fuel companies I know who I would trust.
I also think cloud seeding is also having an impact on weather as certain countries are robbing the natural rain fall that would normally fall somewhere else. How places like Dubai can flood is absolutely nuts and this is their own fault.
Thing is when there are no clouds we can all see the vapour trails!!