Brexit Britain will be over £100billion worse off if it leaves the EU without a trade deal claims US-based think tank

in #president7 years ago

Brexit Britain would be economically worse off outside the European Union under most other trade scenarios and exiting without any trade deal at all could see the country's wealth decline by over £100billion, a US-based think tank has claimed.

The Rand Corporation used a mathematical model to forecast changes in GDP growth, GDP per capita, trade and foreign direct investment for the UK under eight different trade scenarios.

According to the economic analysis, a failure to strike any trade deal with the EU would reduce GDP by 4.9%, or £105 billion over 10 years.


Theresa May(L) and EU Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker are expected to discuss trade deals this week

Charles Ries, the lead author of the report, commenting on the findings said: 'The analysis clearly shows that the UK will be economically worse-off outside of the EU under most trade scenarios.

'It is in the best interests of the UK and to a lesser extent the EU, to achieve some sort of open trading and investment relationship post-Brexit.'

Discussing the advantages Ries said: 'This would preserve economic benefits for both sides, but also give the UK the freedom from EU rules which it seeks.

'However, the EU is likely to want to ensure that it does not give too much away to the UK during negotiations,' he added.

Besides falling back on World Trade Organisation rules, the Rand Corporation tested seven other trade scenarios, which it said would be 'considerably better' for the UK.

The most beneficial scenario to the UK economy according to the report, would be a trilateral UK-EU-US agreement.

Under this scenario, UK GDP would be 2.2 per cent higher than under the WTO rules scenario.