Are you sure Biden is going to lose the election?

in #politics5 years ago

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I have no idea who will win the election and am making no predictions. But I'm amused at how many people have crystal balls already declaring Biden the loser.

Hillary beat Trump by 2 percentage points in the popular vote. That's currently the low end of Biden's polling advantage over Trump.

Bernie supporters claim a moderate can't win, but Hillary had nearly three million more popular votes than Trump, and redistribution of a few tend of thousands of them would have won the electoral college.

Biden can see where Hillary performed below Democratic expectations to lose key states and target those states.
That includes targeting key demographic groups Hillary failed to turn out, like African-Americans in Wayne County, MI.

Of course it's also possible the campaign and the candidate don't matter at all, and the race will be determined entirely by fundamentals beyond the candidates' control. Some political scientists think so. In that case it wouldn't matter which candidate the Dems nominated.

But your Berner friend who absolutely knows the Democratic just blew it? They have strong feelings, but they don't actually know anything about electoral politics.

Just to be clear. I'm not arguing this is all evidence Biden will win. I'm arguing its evidence that any Bernie supporter who's stating categorically that he can't win is an ideologically blinkered idiot.

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It doesn't matter if Biden or Trump wins...they are both "republican" candidates.