As I look at the effect, he has had it occurs to me that his 2016 win was a huge fluke that probably should never have happened. However, he ran in a race against an exceptionally bad candidate and was able to tap into an untapped source of voters in the key states he needed to win. Alter any of those facts slightly and he likely loses and is never heard from politically again. I still believe that he did not deep down inside think he was going to win and yet he did.
Now that he has been president, he has gained more power and support among those who approve of his policies. But his deficiencies have become clearer to those who never bought into his charms, and even some that did. His handpicked candidates did not do well and that was probably the single biggest reason the Republicans did not get their wave. His continued insistence that the 2020 election was stolen alienates moderates who might support him but play to the passionate group of individuals who are his base. His fluke victory has provided him with the opportunity to continue to shape the Republican party and that is not going well with them.
The Republican party has to make a choice.
If they do not powerfully move to limit his influence in their party then we will continue to hamper them until he dies or some enterprising Democrat DA figures out how to put him in jail. If they do move forcefully to separate themselves from Trump, they clearly will lose a lot of those who have been voting for Trump, and not the Republican party. But in the long term, they can salvage their reputation to the point where people will see them as just another political party.
It is reasonable for them to forcefully move against Trump right now and sacrifice the 2024 election, as his supporters are peeled away from the Republicans so that they will be in a better position in 2026. In fact, if they do not do that, they are likely to limp along for a long time wounded by the unique phenomenon that is Trump.