This situation is coined by Erdogan, who is likely to win the referendum in Turkey now.
For the Dutch election, I see the following. In the latest polls, the conservative party of prime minister Mark Rutte and the anti-Islam party of Geert Wilders both gained 2 seats, relative to the poll of a few days before the current situation with Turkey. All political parties with seats in the parliament have supported the Dutch government and there is much support within society as well. It can be a real game changer because this subject is dominating the elections now.
So if I understand your projections correctly...Erdogan wins and the more conservative and anti globalist parties will benefit in the Dutch election?
Jup.
It is hard to say how much the conservative and anti globalist parties in the Netherlands will benefit, because there are many (new) of them in the election. Right now the polls say Mark Rutte and Geert Wilders will be the biggest parties, but only with 24 seats each (the parliament has 150 seats).
I don't see Erdogan backing down his power play, so the Dutch electorate may become even more aggitated at Turkey and vote even more anti globalist.
I am not familiar with the Dutch political system, but it would seem that no one party would have a majority? They would need to form a coalition?
If you were amazed by the fact that 28 parties are participating in the election, here is an absolute mindf*ck: 81 parties did apply to join the elections, but most of them did not meet requirements. =p
Forming a coalition is indeed inherent in the multi party system we have in the Netherlands. And election after election, it is becoming more difficult in the last decades. Because the parties that have long formed the status quo are losing ground - there are more 'floating voters' and in this election there are 28 parties that want their votes.