Universal basic income, breaking down the math

in #politics6 years ago (edited)

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I think the only way universal basic income can work is with a 50% federal income tax across the board. No deductions, no exceptions. That being said with $1,197.83 in UBI coming in each month, who cares. Working will be optional for most people. Let's follow the numbers from 2016, for example, US gross domestic product was 18.62448 trillion dollars. Take 18.62448 divide by 50% or half if you prefer it equals 9.31224 trillion. Now subtract 3.4 trillion for single payer health care (a perk of my plan) and you have 5.91224 trillion. Subtract the us federal budget of 3.871 trillion minus redundant programs such as, health care 1.107,446 trillion, social security 944.338 billion, and income security/ entitlement programs 546.35 billion. You are now left with 1.272866 trillion for government operating expenses. Subtract that 1.272866 trillion from the above 5.91224 trillion and it equals 4.639374 trillion. Now divide that by the us population 322.762018 million round to the nearest dollar and you get 14,374 dollars. Divide one more time by the 12 months of the year and you arrive at $1,197.83 a month.

The one flaw I see in my own plan is that if this plan were to be instituted today with the high amount of people needed in the workforce to make our economy function it would probably lead to runaway inflation. Companies would have to entice people to work when they're already receiving a universal basic income and have to pay a 50% income tax on wages. Even wages for fast food workers may go as high as $20 to $30 an hour and with the wages being as high as they are businesses will pass these costs on to the consumers which will then decrease the real world purchasing power of the above-mentioned amount of universal basic income. The UBI would again be raised with the increased revenue from the 50% tax now being on $20- $30 an hour jobs as opposed to $8- $9 an hour jobs from before. and this cycle just continues causing runaway inflation. In order for this system to work we will need a high level of unemployment, most likely technological unemployment, before a plan like this could be instituted. With only a small work force needed to run the economy in our more automated near future. Wage increases that would be a natural result of universal basic income should lead to negligible amounts of inflation.

Source information

US GDP
https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/gdp

US population
https://www.usnews.com/opinion/blogs/robert-schlesinger/articles/2016-01-05/us-population-in-2016-according-to-census-estimates-322-762-018

Health care costs
https://www.cnbc.com/2017/06/23/heres-how-much-the-average-american-spends-on-health-care.html

Us budget info
https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2016/02/13/the-2016-federal-budget-where-the-money-really-goe.aspx