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RE: Is this play is good (middle stack, flop all in play)?

in #poker7 years ago

Thanks for your comment!

But, I think that this play is reasonable.
If he had top hit, I had about 6 outs(any A, Q).

If he call, I would win 24% (76% lose).

EV( if he called )

  • lose: -13000 * 0.76 = -9880
  • win: 35000 * 0.24 = 8400

EV = -1480

Fold Equity( likelihood that opponent folds * gain in equity if opponent(s) fold )

  • If likelihood that opponent folds is 20%
    FE is 9000 * 0.20 = 1800 => EV = 1800 - 1480 * 0.80 = 616

  • If likelihood that opponent folds is 15%
    FE is 9000 * 0.15 = 1350 => EV = 1350 - 1480 * 0.85 = 92

  • If likelihood that opponent folds is 12%
    FE is 9000 * 0.12 = 1080 => EV = 1080 - 1480 * 0.88 = -222

If likelihood that he folds is over about 15%, this play is reasonable.
Is this right?

And, his likelihood of fold may be over about 15% because he afraid of my over pair.
He might think that he didn't want to die his one pair.