I think you do know. You just find the question incredibly interesting. As do I. Still, the fact remains that you're trying to convince a human being and not a hydrogen atom. So, your own actions concede to the likelihood of free will. As does the original post. Don't get me wrong, its amazing to consider how many factors can influence a single momentary decision.
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No, I don't know. How could I know?
What do you know? I mean, seriously. Who were you before you were born? Were you trillions of "lifeless" atoms? What or where are you going to be after you die?
Now, from this foundation of having not the slightest clue about how to even begin to answer these questions we're going to try to ascertain whether we have freewill? People are arguing back and forth about gods and God and all kinds of wanky ideas -- it should be clear that we're all lost on this topic. We have our religious freaks that "know" God exists and that He will save us, then the science freaks that "know" God doesn't exist and are certain that death will go down like ________.
No...just. no.
Admit it. Nobody knows a damn thing about any of this, we just want to convince ourselves that we do because knowing gives us a sense of comfort. Well, I don't want comfort, I want reality.