I think a big source of error is the market share. Their market share will be tiny in this huge market. I think that you overestimate the market share. And since it is such a small number it is of course hard to estimate.
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Initially, the market share will be small, however, over a period of 5 years with competitive Dapps I believe their market share will at least hit the first table's targets. I can certainly setup a few more models with smaller market share growth. Thanks for your input!
thanks