The Belgian football competition will start on Friday! Only 2 days to go! So the sports betting bug is awakening.
So just like every season I will try to make a profit with sportsbetting!
In the past 2 season my bets were based on my own poisson model. But this failed miserably. Maybe because I did play all bets single. This season it will be different.
No poisson model will be used and no single bets will be placed! I will honor a part of my nickname and will only play multiples. If you are interested in single betting picks, I can only advise you to follow @costanza, who does this for a living. Which is no guarantee of course that he will make a profit, neither it is if you follow my picks!
Which will give me more insight is that I will see each team live at least once this season. This should give me a better view on their play style. Still no guarantee on a profit!
At the moment I do have only a small bankroll at my preferred bookie. Only €8.08. When I do run out of funds, I will deposit one time €50. This will have to do it for me!
The idea is to place 3 or 4 bets per round. There are 8 games per round played in the Jupiler Pro League. I will focus on the 1X2, Over/Under 2.5 goals, BTTS and maybe also a correct score double.
I am still doubting if I will select 2 or 3 games per multiple. But each multiple will consist of the same bets.
My bookie will be unibet! I know that there are better bookies available but I have been placing bets for ages there! Also they do offer from time to time increased odds on multiples.
My rules
So decisions have to made.
Here are my rules:
- The multiple bets will consist of 3 games, each of the same betting type;
- Each multiple bet will have a €1 stake, this can be increased depending on the profit made;
- The correct score double bet will only have a stake of €0.25.
Those are enough rules!
Of course depending on the results the rules can be changed. But for the start of the season these will be my guidelines!
Like always I will create an excel tracking sheet and will publish the results of my bets after each round!
I will try to publish my bets a few hours before the kick-off of the first game, but I cannot guarantee this!
Be careful when sports betting, only gamble with money you can afford to lose. For me sports betting is a hobby, I am not doing it to make an immense profit, but I won’t mind if this will be the case!
First bets
We have to start somewhere, so here are my 4 bets for the first round of the Jupiler Pro League!
Cheers,
Peter
Good luck on the season...clean slate, I just wouldn't put as much stock in the odds for week one as I do later in the season. There's always a few teams that on paper don't perform (I mean like way off) like the oddsmakers predict.
The first games are indeed difficult for both the bookie and the gambler. I could go for Anderlecht, Club Brugge and Genk for the 1X2 but I do think that Antwerp will also start great. So it is a calculated gamble!
Also I do think that there is no use in placing multiples if the odds don't go above 2. If that would be the case, singles would be the saffer betting type!
Betting is very risky. One should avoid it.
I follow you, although lately the Belgian championship has become more difficult
It will be an interesting season. Can Genk prevent a slip down, will Clement take another title with Club Brugge, can Anderlecht rise from the ashes with Kompany, and so on...
So yes, it will be difficult for sure.
I will also play single bets, but wont publish them. Those will be played on Betscorum.
This year I see the Genk a bit in difficulty, keep an eye on the Standard...
Mmh it will like always depend on how good the new signings really are.
Standard? I don’t see then scoring a place in the top 3! But I could be wrong!
Posted using Partiko iOS
Great post! I love to read stuff like this and you're so lucky the Belguim league starts so soon! We have to wait a further week in the UK!
Are you on OLBG.com? this is a great site (non-crypto) with tipping comps and blogs and lots of people discussing systems. Take a look!
Personally, I stay well away from correct score betting! I think in 30 years of Sports betting I have never had a correct score bet come in yet lol.
Will look forward to following your progress mate :-)
I am familiar with olbg. Have an account almist since they started. Also did win some of the tipping comps but since you needed to write an explanation I did stop.
Correct score betting is indeed to hardest to bet on. But when you do hit one it is jackpot. That’s why I do play with a very low stake.
Our competition has 40 rounds, so 40 times 0.25 makes that I am risking €10. I willing to loose that over a season. If it lands only once I will be in the green for that betting type.
It will start sooner than you can imagine!
Posted using Partiko iOS
AHH ok, I also stopped about the time you needed to add comments though it was fun but got out of the habit. I actually won a few quid on the horse tipping, best win was Cheltenham festival 2nd place about 6 years ago...
I think we've all won the Jackpot here! You should post your Unibet affiliate link here!