Let me start off by saying that I have no idea who is telling the truth and that I believe everyone. I know that might seem paradoxical. “How can you believe everyone, Gray? People’s stories conflict. It is impossible for everyone to be right!” I know, I know. In a perfect world there would be a singular truth and we could all rejoice in finding it. But that is not the world we live in. Each and every one of us has our own version of reality, our own interpretation of events. To a feminist Democrat, this is open and shut: “We cannot have a member of the Supreme Court who’s been accused of sexual violence!” And for a hard-right Republican, the same holds true: “We cannot sacrifice a talented Supreme Court nominee for something he might have done over 30 years ago!” Same facts, different realities.

Ford and Kavanaugh

In regard to the allegations by Dr. Ford, I have no doubt that what she says she believes to be true. I don’t think she’s making it up for fame or for money or for political gain. I believe she is telling her story of what happened to her and that we should listen.

That said, human memory is far from perfect. We are able to hold on to our emotional recollection of events quite well, but when it comes to the nitty-gritty details, our memories are no better than a cubist painting. The overall image may be clear, but the order and edges are murky at best. That’s why we use our cellphones to record events in perfect detail, because we can’t. That’s also why we no longer rely on eye witness testimony to put people in prison. Because after the advent of DNA evidence, we exonerated hundreds of people who were put away on eye-witness testimony alone. This includes cases of rape.

In regard to Kavanaugh's denial, I believe him as well. Whether it is because he did not do what he’s accused of, or because he was too inebriated to remember, I suspect he has no recollection of the event. And I say this despite getting a Harvey Dent vibe from his testimony last week.

What if he's guilty?

But, for a moment, let’s imagine Kavanaugh is guilty of what he’s accused of, that he did assault Dr. Ford. Does he deserve a second chance? Should we hold him accountable for the drunken mistakes of his youth? Should Supreme Court justices be held to the impeccable standard we’ve attempted to hold them to in years past? Hasn’t everyone done something in their past that hurt someone, that they wish they could take back?

If it were me, I’d rescind Kavanaugh’s appointment. Guilty or not, the damage to his reputation is done. Half of the country is all the more convinced that he has no place serving as a Justice. The last thing we need is to further politicize a Supreme Court whose apolitical reputation ought to be protected. And while I believe Kavanaugh would have been a fine justice, I personally would prefer a court with a better Left-Right balance.

As for Kavanaugh the human being, I suspect he is, on balance, worthy of the respect and admiration he was predominantly known for just a few weeks ago. Even if he did what he’s been accused of by Dr. Ford, I do not believe his entire life, the complete contents of his character, can be boiled down to a few moments of indiscretion. Life is complicated, and to dismiss Kavanaugh simply as a “sexual predator” would be a gross oversimplification.

[Psychological aside: We know that sexual arousal and alcohol severely impact your decision making abilities (see “Predictably Irrational” by Dr. Dan Ariely). That’s why people drive drunk despite the risks, and why otherwise good people cheat on their partners. You simply are not your complete self in either of these states of mind. And while we should still hold someone accountable for what they do in these states, we should pause before condemning their entire Being.]

The Ramifications of Allegations

The unfortunate truth is that the damage has already been done. The Left, already antagonistic toward Kavanaugh, is certain he has no place on our highest court in light of these allegations. And the Right, already fuming at “obstructionist Democrats”, is certain that this is little more than a “con job”. If Kavanaugh does get confirmed, this will forever be a part of his story, perhaps superseded by wise judicial decisions, but nevertheless tainted for years to come. And if he does not get confirmed, the Right will become all the more incensed, perhaps disrupting the expected “Blue Wave” in November.

NPR recently published a poll showing that the Republican’s enthusiasm for the 2018 midterms has skyrocketed in the wake of Kavanaugh’s confirmation battle. Whereas Democrats previously held a 12 point lead on Republicans, that lead has now be cut in half. Regardless of whether or not Kavanaugh is confirmed, this does not bode well for the Democrats in November. I have not been paying close enough attention to make any kind of predictions, but by now we should all know that nothing is certain in politics.