2017 NBA win totals over/under predictions

in #nba7 years ago

Before each NBA season, oddsmakers list out over/under win totals for all 30 NBA teams. Below are these totals with summaries of my favorite bets.

2017-18 NBA Win Totals - per BetOnline.ag:

Atlanta Hawks
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Under 34 ½ - This is one of my favorite Unders to take, as the Hawks lost Paul Milsap, Tim Hardaway Jr., Jeff Teague, and Kyle Korver all in the span of a year. The Hawks will absolutely be looking to rebuild through the draft which gives them a great incentive to tank. Look for a win total in the mid 20's from the hawks this year.

Boston Celtics
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Over 54 ½ - If the Kyrie deal goes through, this should be a clear Over. A starting 5 of Kyrie, Jaylen Brown (who looks like he may take a huge next step this season), Gordon Hayward, Marcus Morris, and Al Horford should be more than enough to get to 60 wins. Not to mention they have one of the best coaches in the league in Brad Stevens and some good depth in Marcus Smart, Jason Tatum, and Aaron Baynes.

Brooklyn Nets
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Over 20 ½ - I absolutely LOVE this Over pick. The Nets have been historically bad the past few seasons ever since getting fleeced by Danny Ainge in the Paul Pierce/KG trade, which I suppose is the reason this win total is so low. That being said, their new GM Sean Marks has done an outstanding job in assembling a team of players that can actually compete and win games. He's done this by taking on contracts that other teams wanted to get rid of and requesting to get future picks in return for taking on the contracts. The Nets added D'Angelo Russel, Allen Crabbe, and Demarre Carrol this summer to play alongside Jermey Lin, and Caris Lavert (a good young prospect). Since they don't have a draft pick in the 2018 draft, look for the Nets to start the season slow and then finish well above 20.5 wins as other teams start to tank for picks at the end of the year.

Charlotte Hornets
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Over 40 ½ - There's simply no reason the Hornets can't win over 40 games this year with the Hawks, Bulls, and Pacers all taking big steps back. This should be a lock if they stay healthy.

Chicago Bulls
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Under 28 ½ - No Jimmy Butler, no Rondo, D-wade will probably be bought out and on the Cavs by Christmas. Look for a low 20 win count from the Bulls this year.

Cleveland Cavaliers
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Over 52 ½ - Lebron seems to be on a tear this summer. With all the noise of the Kyrie trade, I expect Lebron to be on an absolute mission this regular season and in MVP form. If he can stay healthy and if he wants to win MVP, he's going to go for the #1 seed in the East and will his team to atleast 58 wins.

Dallas Mavericks
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Over 34 ½
Under 34 ½ - This is a toss-up. On one-hand they have some decent young talent, but the West is just so tough and they have to face very team in the West 4 times a year. I'd stay away from this one.

Denver Nuggets
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Over 43 ½
Under 43 ½ - Another tough one. Adding Milsap is huge but we don't know how exactly he'll gel with Jokic and again the West is tough night in and night out. I'd stay away.

Detroit Pistons
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Over 40 ½
Under 40 ½ - This is another stay away for me. Averly Bradley was a huge pickup, but he is injury prone and so is Reggie Jackson. If any of their starters get hurt things can go south really fast for the Pistons. That being said, there are a lot of wins up for grabs in the East. My gut tells me under, but I'll stay away.

Golden State Warriors
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Over 67 ½
Under 67 ½ - Stay away. Warriors are by far the best team in the league but 68 wins is absurdly high yet so feasible at the same time if they want it.

Houston Rockets
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Over 56 ½ - CP3 and James Harden? Sign me up. That's the best offensive backcourt I think I've ever seen in my life and I have no doubt they'll figure it out right away. This team should easily win 60 games and give Golden State a run for the #1 seed.

Indiana Pacers
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Under 31 ½ - With Paul George leaving and the Pacers only getting Victor Oladipo and Sabonis in return, I think this is a pretty decent Under to take. A team that already seemed to hate each other last year is now going to take a step back? Things could get really dicey in that locker room. Love the Under.

Los Angeles Clippers
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Over 41 ½ - I absolutely love this Over. Even though the Clipper lost Cp3 to the Rockets, they got back Patrick Beverley, Lou Williams, Sam Dekker, and Montrez Harrel in return. They added Milos Teodosic, who was easily the best European player not in the NBA last year, and finally got a good SF in Danillo Gallinari. If Blake can stay healthy, this team will be better than last year's Clippers easily and be a 50 win team. I love this Over.

Los Angeles Lakers
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Over 32 ½
Under 32 ½ - I personally don't think Lonzo Ball will have a good rookie season so I'll take the under here but this is definitely a toss-up depending on the Big Baller.

Memphis Grizzlies
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Over 40 ½
Under 40 ½ - Stay away. If they're healthy and Parsons is Parsons again, it's an over. If they're not healthy it's an under. Tough one.

Miami Heat
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Over 42 ½
Under 42 ½ - I'm going to stay away from this one as well. The Heat got really hot last season towards the end, but who knows which Dion Waiters we'll get this year.

Milwaukee Bucks
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Over 44 ½ - Antetokounmpo. Say it with me!

Minnesota Timberwolves
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Under 45 ½ - Lots of hype surrounding the T-wolves, but I still don't see it. Towns is an absolute superstar and Jimmy Butler is a star, but the rest of the guys are unproven and have yet to put together a winning season. I think it takes them one more year of around 40 wins before they make the leap.

New Orleans Pelicans
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Under 40 ½ - Anthony Davis on any night can be the best player in the league, but Boogie Cousins is an odd paring with The Brow and with Rondo things can always go haywire. I would go Under if had to but will probably stay away

New York Knicks
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Under 32 ½ - Unless Hoodie Melo shows up to training camp this season, the Knicks are toast.

Oklahoma City Thunder
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Over 48 ½ - Paul George and Russ should find a way to 50 wins. Simple as that.

Orlando Magic
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Under 34 ½ - They have the most random, direction-less roster in the NBA. Even more so than the Knicks, which is truly a feat. I like the Under here.

Philadelphia 76ers
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Over 40 ½
Under 40 ½ - I'm staying away from this simply because of health issues. The 76ers team doctors have already misdiagnosed Embiid, and they have so many young injury prone players that the season can truly go either way. If they're healthy though, they can really compete.

Phoenix Suns
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Over 25 ½ - Look for Devin Booker to take the next step this year and become an all-star player night in and night out. That alone should carry them to at least 30 wins in the West.

Portland Trail Blazers
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Over 40 ½ - The Blazers looked great with a healthy Nurkic last year. I fully expect this team to be around 43 win if they stay healthy. I also expect C.J. McCollum to take another leap and (dare I say it!), even pass Dame Lillard as the best player on the Blazers this year.

Sacramento Kings
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Under 30 ½ - Way too young. In the West. Incentive to tank. Under!

San Antonio Spurs
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Over 54 ½ - Is this the year the Spurs finally fall off? I doubt it. Leonard is an absolute monster and if anyone can turn Rudy Gay into a team player it's Pop. They're bringing back pretty much the same core that knows the system that has proven to win games. I like the Spurs here to win around 57 games.

Toronto Raptors
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Over 48 ½ - Should be the same talented regular season Raptors team we've had in the past few years. With even less talent in the Eastern Conference this year, this team should easily win 50 games.

Utah Jazz
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Under 37 ½ - Tough summer for the Jazz. They seemed to be making the leap last year in getting to the second round, only to lose their best player in free agency to the Celtics. They definitely still could muster up 38 wins, but I think they're going to really struggle on offense without Hayward so I'll take the under.

Washington Wizards
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Over 46 ½ - John Wall and Bradley Beal in a weak Eastern conference should easily get to 47 wins. A pretty simple over for me.

What do you guys think!?

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