How would you explain Obama's refusal to provide Ukraine with lethal weapons, despite the pressure from Congress? If your theory is right this would be the first thing Obama should do to escalate conflict with Russia..

Conflict comes from a disparity of power. Russia is stronger than Ukraine, from a military perspective. Strengthening Ukriane would make that disparity in power smaller, which would make the cost of aggression higher for Russia, which would make Russia more hesitant to enact such aggression.

I don't necessarily agree with TDVs conclusions about Obama's motivations. However, they are not inconsistent with his refusal to give lethal weapons to ukraine. In fact, that is exactly what one would do if one wished to escalate a conflict. Provoke the aggressor by supporting the weaker party with non-military aid and rhetoric. But refrain from providing lethal armaments and military aid to the weaker party, because doing so would act as a deterrent to aggression.