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RE: Why Financial Crises Will Continue To Occur As Long As Humans Run The Markets

in #money8 years ago

Markets are not stable but they are resilient. This means that, if they can, they will correct themselves. The cause of the Business Cycles and all of the crashes have always been to do with government and central bank interventions. The first boom-bust cycle was when the Dutch National Bank offered free minting and certification of gold. Gold flooded into the Dutch marketplace, and the lack of seignorage cost (checking the gold was pure and pressing it into certified coins) caused the Tulip Mania. This eventually crashed.

The same principle applies no matter which boom-bust cycle you look at. Someone fiddled with the supply of money, making it extremely cheap, and this cheap money gets invested in long shots and marginal investments that are unlikely to yield a profit ever, and eventually this is discovered, and then everyone panics trying to sell off their holdings. The part of the market where this happens may not be big, it only has to be one small segment drunk on cheap money, and it makes everyone poor.

Markets by themselves do not cause this. Even the gold rushes did not cause boom bust cycles, even as the supply of gold, used as money, rose quite a lot for a time. The level of acceleration of the supply of money has to be beyond the natural cost of production.

The global market is almost completely integrated now, there is very few gaps that stop trade to and fro between interested parties anymore. We are heading for a crash soon, there is more debt in the system now than could be paid back in a hundred years, even if the investments were sound. These investments would have never happened if the interest rates were not artificially lowered.

The cost of money production and the interest rate are different phenomena but their effects are the same. They dilute the pool of money, cause massive differences between prices of some market goods and services, and others. These differences are what the market always strives to level out. The crashes are simply the market trying to eliminate these dangerous interventions that cause unnaturally rapid increase in the amount of money.