- Beginning of the data enabled economy -> paradigm shift in computing: from CPU centric to memory centric (Big Data, AI, 5G, IoT)
- Memory demand outstrips supply -> insatible demand from 400 global hyperscale datacenters -> ASPs increasing for 2H 2018
- Node transition -> 20nm to 17nm DRAM -> CMOS under Array 64L-NAND and 96L-NAND -> increasing revenue
- Node transition -> cost reduction -> increasing gross margin -> increasing profit
- Node transition -> NEW clean room space in Singapore & Hiroshima plants (NO new wafer capacity added!)
- NAND very elastic -> price falls -> more demand
- DRAM non elastic -> price rises -> you have no choice you must pay the price
- In DRAM -> next gen DDR5 DRAM to be produced at the end of 2018 -> future revenue and profit stream
- In GDDR -> next gen GDDR6 VRAM mass production started for new graphics card with next gen Nvidia Turing GPUs
- In NAND -> next gen 96L-NAND and 128L-NAND with TLC and/or QLC (+33% more capacity than TLC) technology
- In 3D XPoint -> 2nd gen 3D XPoint technology with CMOS under Array under joint development with Intel
- Solution provider -> internal NAND memory consumption for datacenter/enterprise and consumer SSDs -> higher margins -> higher profit
- New products in the pipeline (like NVMe & 3D-Xpoint based products) -> future profit
- Industry’s first SSD with 64L CuA quad-level cell (QLC) 3D NAND available and shipping
- AI and automotive will consume huge amount of memory: NAND, 3D XPoint and DRAM
- Oligopol -> only 3 DRAM suppliers worldwide -> maximizing profit not market share -> supply remains tight
- Micron holds 51% majority of IMFT 3D-XPoint JV -> increased capacity at Lehi plant for 3D-XPoint production
- Undervalued -> record Q3 revenue & record Q3 cash flow & record Q3 free cash flow -> Q4 even better forecast
- Undervalued -> lowest forward P/E ratio in the market -> cheap because of earlier & actual FUD (it has peaked, China, memory=commodity)
- $10 billion buyback starting in September approved, MU will utilize 50% of its FCF in this buyback
- We have Sanjay Mehrotra and his team on our side
- STRONG BUY (Analyst consensus based on 22 analyst ratings) average PT: $83.29 (= 64,54% upside potential)
Additional info:
LAM Research: Content growth remains a powerful multiyear driver of demand in the new data enabled economy.
LAM Research: DRAM context: spending looking rational, modest, disciplined, balanced and healthy:
---------------------- no evidence that DRAM customers are adding too much capacity
---------------------- prudent investment in additions, and
---------------------- significant investment in conversions
Applied Materials has stated several times that the DRAM producers are very disciplined about supply.
Samsung and SK Hynix have forecast healthy demand supply for DRAM in 2H 2018, with higher ASPs.
Cisco forecasts: Hyperscale data centers will grow from 338 in number at the end of 2016 to 628 by 2021.
NAND SSD penetration into data centers is slightly above 10% at present, a lot of runway for continued growth.
Micron has the option to exercise right to buyout INTC from IMFT in its entirety for manufacturing, not 3D-XPoint IP.
Micron has started to sample its preliminary next gen DDR5 DRAM chips to interested parties.
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