After all, why prices fluctuate? A technical look at human behavior.

in #money8 years ago

We human beings have a habit of trying to explain the daily events. It's something we can not change. Since the beginning of civilization, we try to answer basic and fundamental questions to any company like: Who are we? Where does the world come from? Who ensures that we exist in fact? I think therefore I am. Very already philosophers tried to answer these questions.

For many people the world is incomprehensible, like a rabbit that magical strip of a hat that little time ago was empty. In the case of the rabbit, we know that the magic eluded people. When we talk about the world, things are a little different. We know that the world is not a lie or illusion, because we are living in them. Basically, we are the rabbit was out of a hat. The only difference between the human and the rabbit is that the rabbit does not know that participating in a magic trick. Us is different, we know we are part of something mysterious and we would like to explain how it all works.

In a first analysis, the key variables are the most correct explanation for the price changes in the crypto currency market. For fundamental variables play their role, it is necessary to occur the action of the market, represented by the action of thousands of investors who buy and sell.

These investors seek explanations for everything and think themselves well informed about the world around them.  They read the news sites, forums, social pages of important members in the crypto currency market, talk in chat with other investors. Only after digest so much information is that they make the decision to buy or sell, making the prices oscillate in the crypto currency market.

Thanks to informacial asymmetry, people hardly station on top of everything that happens at the same time, more than the means of communication and information become modern. Rarely investors reach the same conclusions about the impact of information on the market value of a altcoin. Still, investors will make choices and will commit to them until a new factor to make them change of opinion.

Because of information asymmetry, autistic fundamentalist factors can not make the price of a altcoin rise, since investors with a large capital, may have made a choice in the opposite direction and will strive to protect their positions. Similarly the price of a altcoin may already have risen enough in an anticipatory movement of insiders to a favorable news. And now that this news made headlines, the price falls inexplicably, leaving many investors who bought too late in damage, and try to find a reason to explain the unexplainable.

For me, what moves the price in the crypto currency market is people's expectations about the future performance, so the market can not be considered rational.

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