Greg, I've been around a long time. Lived through the 87' crash, I remember how I felt when the DOW pushed through 3000 for the first time, the dot-com bust, and 08 (that one was easy to see coming), and you are right, gen-pop has no idea what is right around the corner. All they see is 'Market Going Up - Lets get In!' But it should also be said "A fool and his money is soon parted" but will anyone listen? No, they will not, just like before. Same movie, different audience
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Hi Dankh, can you share what similarities you see now with the times just before the previous crashes?
How far off d you estimate the crash is?
for the 08 crash I called it a year in advance to the week. It was easy. Ben Bernanke was raising rates at the same pace we are seeing now. But back then, as soon as Paulson (at the Treasury) said he was going to curtail printing money I knew it was over because you cannot, absolutely cannot stop creating debt and printing money in the current monetary system. I was one of the voices telling the pension fund directors to cash out of the market, they said I was the sole dissenting (out of 13 advisors) and that they would follow the majority voice. After the initial punch down they asked if it had bottomed and I told them they would see more pain the day after Christmas when retail sales was reported. They decided to listen then, but by then half the damage had already been done
Good analysis