Greg, thank you for your analysis.

The big problem with forecasting the market now is that the big buyers in the markets are the central banks (directly or indirectly through black pools). Because they "print" the money out of thin air they do not have to pay interest on it. So pushing interest higher it is lucrative for them, the average investor is induced to sell because he has to pay interest and have less money at his disposal and they (the central banks) buy what other people sell. So in order to make a good analysis you need to know how much money they printed and they have invested in the markets. And I do really not know where you can have these data in details... ;-)