As an investor I try not to make predictions. The market will let us know. In fact the market is already letting us know.
On the chart below I have plotted the VIX - the index of volatility (the black bars) - going right back to 1991. Each bar is one month. I have drawn a red line through the current level of the VIX. It is at quite a low level - it is almost certainly below the average level. This index is the measure of how nervous the market gets. Just look at the spikes and then look to the overlaid chart - that is the S&P500 in green and red.
The market is telling us that it is not nervous - the jobs number will come out today and the market will adjust to it. Just go back 3 months and see how the market adjusted to the Brexit collapse. VIX did spike but for that month only.
Now there is work to do on the chart - SPX should probably go on a log scale.
You can play with the chart yourself here https://www.tradingview.com/x/xsO7fq8X/
The NFP report is out - below expectations 151 k vs 180 k.
Currency market throws a wobble and then goes back to what it was doing
How will the market digest this news? Knee jerk reaction is a gap up, will cooler heads realize that the number still above Yellen's 100k target and a rate hike is a lot more likely than the market is currently pricing in?
Good point, but I see it as a lagging indicator. Volatility is low until it isn't...
I trade options - implied volatility tells me how the market is feeling about future prices. The challenge is it changes very quickly - which is what I think your point is. It moves and people ask, "what was that?"
No better test than to track 12 month implied volatility on currencies. 2 years ago before the USD rally we were buying vol on USDCNH below 2%. Now it is over 6%. Option writers are telling us where the USD is going.
By the same token vol on European banks is very low - writers are telling us European banks are going nowhere. Not exactly leading anything - maybe they are right but it feels cheap to me especially once the Fed raises rates