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The future of money, currency, governance, economy, and civilization is to be determined by the confluence of public confidence, politics, culture, economics, and technology. |
If the earth shattering gravity of this blog is not impressed upon you the reader, read it again more slowly and click more of the links. The is a concisely worded, but very deeply insightful blog that assimilates several years of my information accumulation— thus with enough detailed citations to keep the formerly clueless but inquisitive, motivated reader busy for days or weeks.
Edit: This was not formatted for a narrow screen for reading on a mobile phone. I see that Steemit displays the published blog in a narrower column than the preview when I was writing it. CLICK HERE for a wider column format.
What is Money?
@r0achtheunsavory (aka @r0ach) replied on BCT:
@anonymint wrote:
Silver and platinum are highly volatile commodities with a diminishing future— not to be money nor currency ever again.
Iron used to be a precious metal even rarer than gold, but inexorable technological advance changed that. The relative worth (i.e. relative demand vs. all other things in the economy) of commodities will continue their inexorable decline as the industrial age economy implodes under a tsunami contagion of pervasive, global:
- public debt timebomb1 made irreparable by ZIRP which also bankrupted all pensions
- ideological societalcideportmanteau societal+suicide 🐵+🐮 including as biblically prophesied a cuckooed Pope leading cultural genocide by promoting rapacious Marxist envy in defiance of the anti-Marxist proverb2
- expanding kleptocracy3; the dream of democracy
- concomitant displacement of the industrial economy by the Knowledge Age (replicating the Industrial Revolution’s displacement of the agricultural economy, agricultural culture, and agricultural civilization).
Cryptocurrency is not money and will never be money.
In fact, you should be tarred and feathered for even attempting to infer craptocurrency is some type of form of sound money at all…
My dear Pocahontas, let’s extirpate your tinfoil fairytale with millennia of facts.
The generative essence attribute of money has always been the ubiquitous PUBLIC CONFIDENCE that others will accept that money (for goods, services, ransom and other forms of plunder, expropriation, or servitude such as involuntary tributum or triobolon). Which when coupled with divisibility and fungibility, is precisely what differentiates money from horridly inefficient barter.
Martin Armstrong wrote:
Diocletian (284-305AD) who attempted to restore silver coinage after the Great Monetary collapse. It did not matter that coinage was restored. CONFIDENCE still collapsed and the coinage was rapidly hoarded and vanished from circulation [i.e. the velocity-of-money collapsed]. So yes, even when the money is of full [metal] value, it still will not circulate if people do not BELIEVE government.
Martin Armstrong wrote:
Overlooked, is now about 29% of American households are now hoarding CASH (not gold)…MONEY to them is dollars…Households are sitting on $2.15 trillion in savings—about a 50 percent increase over the past five years.
Had the Fed just handed money to people would not have worked for the majority would have hoarded [or paid down debt which increases aggregate net savings] it as a cushion anyway as they are now doing. It is all about CONFIDENCE [which is declining as evident by the declining velocity-of-money].
Martin Armstrong wrote:
In fact, 43% of Americans keep their savings in cash these days for interest pays nothing. Yet, an amazing 53% of those cash-hoarders “plan to hide bills in a secret location at home.”
Martin Armstrong wrote:
The capital flows turned into the USA despite the introduction of increasing the money supply by QE. So while the central bankers expected inflation and the Gold Promoters misrepresent this issue claiming that increasing the supply of money is automatically inflationary so gold must rise and the dollar fall, exactly the opposite has unfolded. [because PUBLIC CONFIDENCE subsumes any Quantity Theory of Money nonsense]
Curtis Yarvin (aka Mencius Moldbug) wrote:
Murray Rothbard once parodied Irving Fisher's quantity theory of money, MV=PQ, by saying "the volume of water that hits the ground is the same as the amount of rain that falls from the sky." A statement which, while true, does not enable you to predict the weather. We know the identity; what is the causality?
Money has always been fiat precisely due to the power vacuum struggle over who/what will satisfy that aforementioned “generative essence attribute”, due to the absence of a Nash equilibrium or Schelling point that could otherwise spontaneously generate it. Contrary to myopic bullshit*, even gold and silver are not a Schelling point nor stable Nash equilibrium because:
- Manipulation of supply (with control over fiat and governance) and velocity via predatory taxation.
- Others prefer fiats, because if precious metals were ubiquitously accepted money immune to fiat control, it would prevent government from (the “long con” convincing illusion3 of) fulfilling the obligations demanded by the people.
Martin Armstrong wrote:
…the people will step in and provide their own fiat to fill the vacuum…when government fails to provide that medium, they create their own fiat system. Thus, the use of “scrip” during the 1930’s was not a new idea.. [note: I provided more historical examples]
| Since gold and silver are not a Nash equilibrium strategy nor Schelling point for money, then if PUBLIC CONFIDENCE in a fiat can’t be established, the world has historically descended into a (typically ~600 year) Dark Age where only food is money and precious metals are worth less than the risk-cost of exchanging them thus they’re buried in the ground. |
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Thus neither precious metals nor fiat are a “form of sound money”.
Every asset, money regime, and thing in nature floats in a dynamic cycle— “historically even gold has lost all value as was the case after the fall of Rome” so can’t reliably serve as economic collapse protection and paradigmatically under-performed by more than order-of-magnitude per average human lifespan!
Although there is utility in social coordination which will cycle through first-world peaks and collapse3, an eternal fixed standard of value is impossible wherein only gold would be the reserve unit-of-account upon which everything else is priced, because it would require the Universe to become dependently tethered/static (zero entropy) such that nothing could ever grow faster or slower than the supply of gold without respectively losing or gaining absolute worth. Relativity would cease to exist: the past and future would become undifferentiated, the speed-of-light innumerable (unquantifiable), and life would not exist. Btw, I also worked out analogous logic (hint: there is always a opportunity cost leakage such as via shorting) as to why all cryptocurrency pegs will eventually fail, e.g. BitUSD and Tether.
* And note I read that myopic bullshit (written by Curtis Yarvin aka Mencius Moldbug) after independently formulating my conceptualization.
Euro is a Monetary Enslavement Paradigm
Analogous to the domestic political aversion to external monetary discipline mentioned in #2 of the prior section, “a single currency that would be used in daily commerce by everyone would never exist without monumental collapse in governments and a new one world government” to institute a global fiat (↖click link for full text of The Economist), because the natural entropic tendency is for competing cultures and societies to form separate fiat currencies enabling local political-economic fitness:
“Since there is no central international monetary authority, an SDR-based system would…mean that nations relinquish the ability to use monetary policy to pursue domestic policy objectives, a very unpopular alternative.”— White House Council of Economic Advisors Nov. 8, 1995
For example, denominating Greece’s debt in Euros whilst Greece remained fiscally independent from other EU states, i.e. relinquishing its national Drachma currency to Euro integration but not integrating fiscally and thus political-economically is as sustainable as being half-pregnant, meant that Greece’s productivity had to rise as fast as Germany’s (reflected in the rise of value of Euro), but this is impossible because Greece is different than Germany.
Phoenix Rises as a Hegelian Dialectic
In addition to the issue of domestic political aversion to external monetary discipline, international monetary capital flows will park where there is the most liquidity* (i.e. where most other international monetary capital flows), except when not parking and seeking investment yield. This unavoidable/unstoppable free market phenomenon creates a singular (but not eternal/static) self-reinforcing PUBLIC CONFIDENCE driven international reserve store-of-value— a monetized medium-of-saving in post-Austrian Moldbug Monetary Theory (MoMT):
In a pre-industrial or even pre-electronic age, it's easy to understand the standardization of media of exchange. If Thag the axe-maker wants silver for his axes and all you have is gold, you have to go fetch Drog the money-changer, which is a pain in the ass. However, on a modern (or at least future) trading platform, translating commodities is a matter of milliseconds. Thus it would appear that the demand for a monetary standard is epsilon. You can buy axes with pork bellies, no problem.
However, the monetization of medium-of-exchange can now become orthogonal to medium-of-saving (which is evidenced on the international savings scope, with the existence of national currency standards orthogonal to the dollar international reserve currency and that international investment flows now dwarf trade flows, which surprisingly Armstrong failed to assimilate), because the frictional costs of trading electronic assets do not have an insignificant cost epsilon when requiring more frequent transactions than saving:
Or consider an economy in which the daily medium of exchange is silver, but all significant silver accounts are converted to gold overnight. This economy demands a very small amount of silver (petty cash) and a very large amount of gold (savings and other long-term positions). Hence, it is one in which silver is substantially demonetized - yet the medium of exchange.
To not be a slave to fiat (or an altcoin slave to BTC), I posit that a cryptocurrency has to have use-cases that make these “frictional effects” significant so that the cryptocurrency can’t be disintermediated as follows:
With these magical devices, coincidence of wants is not in principle a problem, though small frictional effects persist.
It is trivial to do business in Bitcoin when BTC/USD is unstable. Simply post the price in USD, and use the BTC/USD exchange rate as of the transaction date [as Bitpay does].
Yet Moldbug loses focus that only the sovereignty of the fiat provides the Nash equilibrium strategy Schelling point. NIRP in the EU demonstrates that the sovereign can charge a negative discount rate as an admission fee:
In fact, it is impossible for loan markets in dollars and gold to predict this result, because there is no such thing as a negative interest rate in a loan market - the transaction is meaningless…
The Nash equilibrium of speculation is too diversely randomized in myriad of time frames and permutations:
Where is the misprediction coming from? It is coming from the fact that the lending market, since it does not understand the monetary standardization game, cannot play it.
Thus as explained mathematically below, any one outcome can’t be the sole preferred strategy, even if the force of fiat is creating an ephemeral strategy choice for the international reserve currency and national currencies medium-of-exchange standards. And I already explained why being tethered to a universal, singular, eternal monetary standard would require a static (past undifferentiated from future) Universe which thus by definition, can’t exist.
Yvain wrote:
Here there is no Nash equilibrium without introducing randomness…Flip a coin. If you flip a coin, and your opponent flips a coin, neither of you will regret your choice. Here we see a "mixed Nash equilibrium", an equilibrium reached with the help of randomness…
Thus afaics, the only two potential Schelling point opportunities for a Phoenix global currency to rise would exist simultaneously with and be separate from from any national (or regional bloc) currencies:
World institutional fiat international reserve.
Globalized medium-of-exchange with some exclusive, compelling attribute— i.e. intrinsic value:
Indeed, it is logically possible to imagine an economy in which the medium of saving and the medium of exchange are different assets, and the medium of saving is overvalued but the medium of exchange is not…
History has never seen a pure monetary standard like Bitcoin [implying Bitcoin has no significant intrinsic value]. It's not only that gold has intrinsic material utility - even fiat currency, though tremendously overvalued by savings energy, has intrinsic value. Try paying your taxes without it.
In the first case, I’ve already explained that precious assets (e.g. metals) can’t have a Schelling point for becoming an international reserve. Contrary to valid but insignificant causal insights, they’ve been mostly effective (but by now insignificant barbaric relics) deception for fiat regimes to pretend-and-extend the “long-con”3:
The wild card in the gold market, as I hasten to remind readers, is the existence and/or new creation of synthetic or "naked short" gold, presumably by central banks (no one else could hide the losses). If dollar liabilities can be transformed to gold liabilities, currency issuers (central banks) can create infinite synthetic gold to neutralize all monetary demand.
Perhaps this is a crime. If so, the CBs exhibit motive, opportunity, and propensity. The official gold market, including bullion banks, is a riddle wrapped inside a mystery inside an enigma. I would like to see the gold books of all governments, exchanges, and banks. Who is naked? Who is transforming maturities? It won't happen.
Truly “decentralized” cryptocurrencies (which btw don’t exist yet) that are thus not ultimately fiats (as they don’t succumb to winner-take-all, economies-of-scale) can never become the international reserve currency for fiats because dubious liquidity between cryptocurrencies and fiats will be potentially attackable at least until if cryptocurrency becomes too popular globally (which is the Hegelian catalyst discussed below). The paramount generative essence attribute of a reserve currency is liquidity*.
Analogous to my #2 point about gold in the first section, truly “decentralized” cryptocurrency (especially as a medium-of-saving, thus a unit-of-account for debt/bonds) would ultimately be a threat to fiat regimes when/if displacing the fiat monopoly (especially in sovereign bonds) which otherwise (i.e. when not displaced) enables the “first-world, socialism, nation building” bubble3. Evidence such resistance in that the Bitcoin ETF hasn’t been approved. However, cryptocurrency is less threatening to fiat regimes as a speculative asset (bubble?) which is only a fledgling medium-of-exchange currently significantly corralled by centralized exchanges, traceable blockchains, and esoteric, limited use-cases.
If cryptocurrency establishes widely sought use-cases that can’t be provided by fiat medium-of-exchange (e.g. permissionless, regulation-free, non-modal, borderless, instant, nanotransactions in a paradigm where blockchains displace all widely shared centralized databases on the Internet), national and regional fiat regimes would find it difficult to prevent these uses because it would be Whac-A-Mole with similar outcomes as the example of as the more decentralized file sharing is attacked, the more popular it becomes. The fiat regimes could attack or threaten to attack centralized exchanges and other choke points within their jurisdictions, but unless most jurisdictions are coordinated then cryptocurrency systems will route around the defecting nations causing them to suffer more than the whole. Users may game the global system using different fiats/jurisdictions as proxies routing around defecting jurisdictions.
Presuming the Scalepocalypse is solved (which it will be, as solutions are known already with for example Steem already scaling but not truly decentralized), cryptocurrency is poised to be the Hegelian dialectic catalyst that drives coordinated acquiescence to a world government, because a worldwide coordination will be required to regulate liquidity between fiat and cryptocurrency in order to rescue central banking from extinction and sustain the Iron Law of Political Economics “long con”3 that society demands. This thesis even seems to correlate with the scripture that the Beast is wounded but recovers because the people demand it.
Moving directly to a world government without a catalyst to force international coordination is implausible both because of the lack of a Schelling point about relinquishing national sovereignty which was explained in the prior section. The Euro was achieved by obfuscating the enslavement and with the catalyst lie that peace would be more sustainable— which former UK Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher (a close personal friend of Armstrong) disagreed with and fought valiantly but could not defeat. Blowback incoming. Also a rapid remonetization or monetary reset must cause widespread economic dislocation to some sectors. Whether it be the elite or the masses, both dislocations are difficult to achieve or at least without blowback, which in the case of disenfranchised masses can result in a more fractured landscape of separatist movements, which increase disorder probably making world government coordination less plausible (although disorder can be a power vacuum catalyst driving demand for coordination, but not necessarily having any Schelling point for achieving coordination).
Martin Armstrong wrote:
However, this idea that everyone will be using the same [fiat!] currency is a pipe-dream with no basis in reality for the amount of political change would require a bloodbath in revolution. It could NEVER unfold willingly with the political system we currently have. Even then, counter-revolutionary forces would emerge. It will not be just BREXIT, it will be countless civil wars against a central political institution.
The very best will be a single new reserve currency to replace the dollar. But every country would still need to retain its own currency because the business cycle cannot be defeated so while some countries benefit, others must suffer.
The Economist inadvertently predicted the potential rise of a non-fiat, globalized cryptocurrency:
THIRTY years from now, Americans, Japanese, Europeans, and people in many other rich countries, and some relatively poor ones will probably be paying for their shopping with the same currency. Prices will be quoted not in dollars, yen or D-marks but in, let’s say, the phoenix. The phoenix will be favoured…because it will be more convenient than today’s national currencies, which by then will seem a quaint cause of much disruption to economic life in the last twentieth century…
As the next century approaches, the natural forces that are pushing the world towards economic integration will offer governments a broad choice. They can go with the flow, or they can build barricades…
Although the coming global economic collapse1 may plausibly provide a Schelling point political opportunity for a monetary reset that institutes some deception that appears (to fools) to be a power sharing among nations of the international reserve currency, due to the aforementioned political-economic resistance, this can’t plausibly go all the way to world governance consolidation of the national fiscal budgets and the concomitant national (or regional bloc union) central banking. For that we need a catalyst to achieve a Schelling point to overcome the political resistance.
Martin Armstrong wrote:
As for SDRs, I proposed that back in 1985, The White House responded to me with a two-page letter stating that such a system would mean the government willloserelinquish domestic policy objectives for international. That [Triffin Dilemma] is happening right now any way. The Federal Reserve is becoming the central bank for the world because it is [debt] chaos everywhere else.
Today, however, I would oppose the IMF SDR system for the IMF is way too corrupt [c.f. the complicity of HSBC and Goldman Sachs]. I have told how I was invited by Edmond Safra to the IMF Washington Dinner he put on for the IMF renting the entire National Gallery. Everybody was there from politicians to Paul Volcker. I was told bluntly to join the bankers “club” back then. I was invited to demonstrate to me that they had the IMF in their pocket. They poured money into Russia [to blackmail Boris Yeltsin, c.f. the Money Plane and political transformation of Russia]and the IMF was to keep the loans going. When they could not, the whole mess collapsed [as I warned the IMF it would, without perfect deterministic control because I’m omniscient]. That produced the Long Term Capital Management crisis and the first Fed bailout.
Because the London Financial Times had reported on the front page that at our London WEC in July 1998, I delivered the forecast that Russia would collapse in a matter of weeks, that began this whole mess alleging I manipulate the world economy…
To break the world monetary system, that will ONLY take place with a rising dollar. But with a declining outcome thereafter. You are just missing that part that FIRST the dollar must soar to screw up the world…
Martin Armstrong wrote:
…setting of the stage for the one-world reserve currency. To reach that point, what we need is a strong dollar rally that will hurt the world economy significantly forcing political change.
Displacing the dollar takes decades to accomplish for it is one domino at a time. Such profound changes to the world monetary system are not accomplished overnight. It took 26 years to wipe out Bretton Woods. From 1971, it was 26 years to the start of the Euro and the Asian Currency Crisis. We should see the dollar displacement by the peak of the next 8.6 year wave. You can see the one-world currency coming – it’s just not ready this instant. It will be the solution they choose. Even the IMF is planning meetings on the SDR…
Martin Armstrong wrote:
The ONLY way to replace the dollar as the reserve currency requires the establishment of a new world currency that will most likely take the form of an [international reserve] electronic currency [for wealth trading] among nations [not a globalized electronic currency for consumer commerce]. My bet, the administrator will turn out to be the corrupt organization of the IMF. That would be a total disaster in my OPINION.
Martin Armstrong wrote:
There are those proposing a gold back SDR. Good luck. Been there done that…and besides do you really want the IMF to be in charge of money creation? That will be worse – an unelected dictatorship [including cousin of former POTUS George Walker Bush that has tentacles in the CIA , drug trade, plus commodities manipulation and Wall Street].
Martin Armstrong wrote:
I would support some practical basket of currencies since Russia and China dislike having the dollar as the reserve currency. Likewise, with the dollar being the only practical currency standing, the USA is realizing that it may lose control of its domestic economy because of international considerations. Clearly, there have already been discussions of removing the reserve status of the dollar, but this cannot be accomplished unilaterally. Under no circumstance would I support placing the IMF in charge of this instrument. That organization is way too corrupt and my advice to China and Russia (where we also have this blog in their respective languages) is to reject any such attempt to hand this power to the IMF. We need a clean house to start such a project and the IMF has way too much baggage.
Martin Armstrong wrote:
The assumption that there needs to be this one-world government to create a one-world [reserve] currency is nonsense. The ONLY political solution will be to create a independent reserve currency. This will be the result of the debt crisis for countries will have to default. However, a reserve currency needs no backing for the value of a currency has always been its image or CONFIDENCE.
Such a reserve currency is exempt from fiscal mismanagement since it would not be the currency of a given government. Each nation would retain its currency that would float against the reserve.
| The impending strong dollar vortex stampede short squeeze1 combined with the Triffin Dilemma, which will be viewed by many policy makers as one of the causes of the imminent global economic collapse, may provide the will to coordinate on an international reserve currency which can’t be controlled by any one nation. I expect it to have similarities to FOFOA’s Freegold hypothesis in the area of providing discipline to the nations wherein sovereign bond speculators penalize nations which do not maintain sound fiscal discipline. Yet differing with some basket weighting of assets, not only gold as the reserve (because again I repeat that politically national fiats would never agree, other than as a token weighting of gold for creating confidence). Yet ultimately this means national currencies become enslaved to the SDR institution analogous to the predicament of Greece in the EU; because national politicians will always overspend. Thus furthering the debt enslavement resulting eventually that higher and higher yields will be demanded of national sovereign bonds in a death spiral analogous to Greece’s predicament, possibly after some respite. Coupled with the hypothesized cryptocurrency catalyst, it’s plausible this may finally push the world into a one world government and fiat currency system. Forcing us to electronic currency is compatible with my thesis. |
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But such an omnipotent world government may not be able to entirely squelch a truly decentralized cryptocurrency as explained more in the next section. Yet (afaik and I’m expert) no one has yet published a blockchain consensus algorithm which is not a winner-take-all, power vacuum endgame.
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Armstrong warned about this in the late 1980s when the States were still in surplus. In 2015, Armstrong proposed that sovereign national governments print the national currency fiat they need instead of taxing and selling sovereign bond debt, but whoever† has tried that has always been |
Solution Conference 2015Pʀɪɴᴄᴇᴛᴏɴ Eᴄᴏɴᴏᴍɪᴄs Iɴᴛᴇʀɴᴀᴛɪᴏɴᴀʟ
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* Because lower liquidity has lower buy/ask market maker spreads— thus less round-trip friction trading losses; and is much less likely to have a chaotic black swan no-bid event. A strong military and institutions may be associated with the expected stable order of the reserve currency.
† JFK did not authorize printing to replace national debt and Oswald probably only intended to shoot the governor.
Cryptocurrency is Unkillable, Analogous to an Endospore
CLICK HERE to read more…
(My blog post was too large for Steem and I received the error, fc::raw::pack_size(trx) <= (get_dynamic_global_properties().maximum_block_size - 256))
P.S. I stumbled onto an essay I wrote in 2008 contemplating something like Bitgold or Bitcoin and published 14 days before Szabo did. I had not worked out how to eliminate the physical backing entirely, but I was spot on the concepts of cryptography and decentralization.
If any of the links on this blog disappear from the Internet, you may find them archived on the Wayback Machine.
“I’m expert” linked to stuff about interactions with @gmaxwell. And Craig Wright and others seem to agree with me about how he railroads others (that might have changed though).
Where else? I think mostly I’m trying to be factual about what I know and do not know and what is my idea or opinion not necessary a proven fact. For example, where I stated that I had the independent idea about Schelling point and Nash equilibrium before reading Curtis Yarvin’s blogs.
Actually the link to that was here.
Does anybody know if someone has 10SP, how much would his 100% upvote be worth?
@anonymint, Grear post really enjoyed reading it. However, i dont think there is enough public confidence yet i would say everyone knows about USD/GBP/EUR but atleast 70% of people have no idea or a very small idea of what a bitcoin is so currently i dont see how cryptos will overtake traditional currencies
The Western debt-based fiat economy will die because it is funding interest payments on old borrowing with new borrowing and interest rates MUST rise (because for example zero and negative interest rates have bankrupted pensions), which will displace funding for other government services. Also eventually the governments will have to cut off all debt that is escaping to cash, gold, or cryptocurrencies. As the stampede accelerates it will by synergistic with the collapse in PUBLIC CONFIDENCE in Western governments and fiat.
Note this will not be hyperinflation because governments will not print more money to hand out to people who want to escape fiat, but instead will be capital controls, confiscation of wealth, and deflationary collapse in totalitarianism. That is why governments are trying to eliminate cash (and they know they can shut down the gold dealers when they are ready making gold illiquid). China (Asia) will probably offer a fiat that still works after 2020 when the Western fiats have become totalitarian jails. This is why the financial capitols of the world will transfer from London and New York to Singapore and Shanghai respectively by 2033 (2032.95).
And if there is a cryptocurrency which is widely used for Internet activities such as how STEEM is used every time we make a post to the blockchain, that cryptocurrency might have a chance of being there right alongside Bitcoin as sustainable because Bitcoin is not the ideal medium-of-exchange due to scaling issues and slow block confirmation period (even 0-confirmation transactions do not confirm in real-time, thus are too slow for comment posts).
Fairr point, good job!
Totally agree, just any day now.
Perhaps not quite as fast as you think? But not delayed enough! (we are not going to like what is coming)
Looks like 2018 or 2019 for the EU to start collapsing hard when the pooling of German bonds with the PIIGS bonds in asset backed securities causes German interest rates to rise. This will ignite the stampede of capital out of the Eurozone sovereign bonds and Euro into the US dollar and US stocks. That will begin the short squeeze dollar vortex I discussed in footnote #3 of the blog, because there is $9 trillion in dollar denominated bonds overseas that have to pay interest payments in dollars (thus they are implicitly short the dollar).
The US dollar and stock market will skyrocket for a year or two until that stampede peaks. Then the entire global economy collapses with Asia bottoming first around 2020 or so and thus slowly growing its way back up while the West (including the USA) continues to fall into the abyss all the way to 2033 and beyond. We will have civil war, civil unrest in the West. And we will probably have war with Russia, China, and/or North Korea (a proxy war to weaken the USA?), as well as probably ongoing in the Middle East.
Really bad, bad, hard times are coming. The brightest area is probably Asia.
Additionally all this migration into Europe is likely to cause another pandemic. I had more on that in my prior Steemit blog.
Once again i am so glad to read your posts.President Trump is more likely to start a war to erase $20 trillion on the national debt. US debt is too big for an economic adjustment programme.
Just a follow up to note that I am aware that my attitude and communication strategy might still need some adjustment.
I wrote in private:
Edit: I suppose the following is bragging:
What I am really trying to do there is challenge readers to dig into the links if at first my summary did not register as any significant information.
Absolutely fantastic article, thank you!I have gone through it again and again.
I’m trying to help lead the counter-culture. Sometimes being confident convinces people to take notice.
Jordan Peterson - Growing Up and Being Useful is The New Counterculture
Thanks for sharing this post and introducing these broad concepts to new readers. SDR system not to be implemented worldwide because IMF is way too corrupt is really not an impediment as been seen with other institutions.
I agree the corruptness of the IMF is not necessarily an impediment. Perhaps they might end up overhauling it replacing the IMF with some BIS or World Bank oversight, thus trying to convince us that the corruption has been fixed. 😏
it is a copy paste from internet :D
Incorrect. I wrote this and it is my original work. I linked to my sources.
Please do not make unsubstantiated accusations, as this is damaging to your reputation. I am tempted to flag your post which would lower your reputation rank.
sorry my friend but it is a big frustration to see so many copy paste articles here in steemit maybe if you want you could try a bit against that ....... i think it is quite unfair someone to make money on someone else work, dont you think so? besides my main faculty i am a photographer too and i know how much time is needed for someone to shot an interesting photo and there are morons who just press upload to win money without giving at least credits to the owner
All the imagery quotes and textual quotes included in my blog have a link back to the source and is afaik allowed under the fair use doctrine of copyright law.
Btw, the Economist magazine cover appears to be I believe a photograph of an actual copy of the 1985 issue.
Good stuff. That certainly took concentration to understand and I am grateful for the effort you made to make it concise despite its intricacies. Upvoted/Resteemed. While I was reading I was thinking that many readers would like a recommendation at the end of some kind, but this was good for informational rather than advice purposes. Thanks for this thoughtful post.
Thank you. I am delighted that others got enough value out of it to leave me such feedback. So I guess the past few years of my life wasn’t totally useless/wasted.
My recommendation is that the people who are awake avail of and improve decentralized paradigms. The Internet is composed of decentralized protocols such as BGP and TCP/IP. I recommend reading the free intro for The Starfish and The Spider. Having native American ancestry and having spent some time roaming in the wide-open solace of the western states of the USA (including West Texas), the story of the Apache appealed to me. I also admired how on Geronimo’s deathbed the very old man had the gall and strength to say he should have never surrendered and said it was better to be hungry and free than to be a slave in a circus of the USG. Ah that is me! (although being gravely ill or delirious from thirst can be torture)
As for more specific suggestions, I have to leave some work for other people to brainstorm and blog about (and I’m only one guy already overloaded with tasks). I think the successful are those who can motivate others to get involved and build on. Tim Berners-Lee and Linus Torvalds are for me examples to emulate.
Also encourage anyone who wants to try to summarize, rewrite with better prose, and split into a series of blogs. I hereby disclaim copyright and everyone has my permission to copy anything they want from my blogs. A (even non-conspicuous) link back would be appreciated.
I also thought we might get into brainstorming about recommendations in the comments.
Heh. Ted's video was entertaining. He could be right :)
Hopefully readers are aware that Ted Nelson created the term hypertext, which is the concept of the links and web browser we have on the Internet.
Another recommendation is to think about correct models that motivate the correct ideology. See my comment reply under @blockchainttmft’s comment.
It may be interesting as a concept, but bitcoin is the new phoenix right now. Up by 40% this week. Gold and silver barely did 2% and 3%, and that's a lot from them.
https://steemit.com/main/@az-charts/recap-what-happened-this-week-in-the-markets-steem-price-bitcoin-price-analysis-in-all-markets
The economist is a leftist/globalist rag. 'They' want a global currency but only one 'they' can tax and control.
Yes, which is why global cryptocurrency is a good thing. It keeps globalists from being able to control it.
But only if the global cryptocurrency is truly decentralized in terms of not having a winner-take-all power vacuum control over the consensus algorithm. No such cryptocurrency yet exists afaik (although I’m working on it).
Afaics, Bitcoin is not and never will be truly decentralized. It is controlled by the whales by proof-of-stake (not proof-of-work!). I explained this in my latest blog: The Real Bitcoin: which Bitcoin fork will win?
If one can argue that the largest whale does not eventually accrue 51% (and then 100%) of all BTC, then they could posit that Bitcoin is decentralized because the whales prevent each other from defecting because (as I explained in the blog post linked above) all forks will be sold by all whales.
However, I have explained in detail elsewhere that it appears the largest whale can accumulate BTC faster than the smaller whales can, for various reasons. Thus it is a winner-take-all power vacuum. The detailed debate/discussion on this should probably take place in a dedicated blog post or forum thread.
Identities are Sybil attackable in proof-of-work (which is desirable is some others respects), so we will never know if Bitcoin is centralized until it is successfully forked because due to the game theory it can’t be successfully forked otherwise, where by “successful” we mean the new fork has a higher proof-of-work difficulty than the legacy chain.
IMF proposing to use a blockchain for SDRs as the future global reserve currency:
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/markets-by-sector/foreign-exchange/the-coming-one-world-currency/
Many points are raised in this article and me being an average joe reading this do not have the expertise to understand the forces at work in the world of finance so I can't make an intelligent argument to most points brought up. Be that as it may here's my take on money and crypto. For me the individual, money in whatever medium of exchange it takes equals stored value. I perceive and like others have agreed to trust the established value relationship at the time of the transaction. So crypto's come along and like others I see an agreed upon value established by exchanges and I can measure the amount of risk I am willing to take to participate in storing the value of my energy in that crypto be it Bitcoin or any of the other altcoins. And like fiat the agreed upon value of exchange has a measurable quantity, I place my trust in it.
I have watched and participated in the development of Bitcoin from the beginning . Why? Mainly as a bystander witnessing the development of at first a curiosity and later a recognizable development of a large scale economic phenomenon. I don't understand the technical side of it but I can read and see the immense amount of development going on in blockchain technology and the proliferation of altcoins. I am witnessing what I see as a fundamental shift from fiat based monetary systems to a digital based system tending to decentralization. I know this a broad simplistic view and I know we are currently in a state of transition that will take some time so I sit here and witness.. Thanks for your hard work and giving me an opportunity to examine my thoughts on medium of exchange that affects all of us.
One of my goals in my (still ongoing) blockchain development work (which was unfortunately significantly stalled for a few years by illness) is to try to create features and a system that gets users as interested in what they can do with their cryptocurrency tokens that they can’t do with fiat systems (including Paypal et al) as they are interested in the investment appreciation of the fiat exchange value of their tokens.
If we can accomplish that goal, then we will have achieved what I believe is a Schelling point for a (as quoted from my blog):
Steem is vying to be that system. Do we value our STEEM as much for what we can do with it as the investment return on STEEM (or the STEEM that can be extracted by blogging)?
Bitcoin probably already has a lock on the intrinsic value of a reserve currency for cryptocurrencies, and the medium-of-exchange to/from fiat. Thus I argue the worst outcome is to fork Bitcoin in August destroying the immutability which insures a 21 million coin limit (and I think all Bitcoin forks will fail because whales will protect the intrinsic value of Bitcoin).
I realize it is unsatisfying to Bitcoin fans if Bitcoin will not scale, but Bitcoin does not need to scale as it can be the on/off ramp to fiat and BTC saving for the altcoin that provides scaling,. Since there will likely be many such competing altcoins, then BTC remains the common denominator for investing in the crypto sector, i.e. the reserve currency of cryptocurrency.
Even if Bitcoin was forked to add some weak ass non-scaling lie, it will still never be that cryptocurrency that provides the breakthrough I am alluding to above. For that, we need competition and experimentation amongst altcoins (not forking the BTC unit into chaotic confusion). Thus we need a stable reserve cryptocurrency and that is Bitcoin. We have it, so no benefit in destroying it whilst trying to make it be something it can not be. Transaction fees will go up on-chain, so eventually those who can not afford have to move to an exchange or an altcoin. That drives a market need for altcoins to compete for the best solution.
Edit: Bitcoin can scale somewhat simply by agreeing on block size increases.
@anonymint Thanks for your comment, this is a very important point that you brought up:
"Steem is vying to be that system. Do we value our STEEM as much for what we can do with it as the investment return on STEEM (or the STEEM that can be extracted by blogging)?"
This is crucial. It's amazing that so many people are using Steemit without even being aware that it is a Blockchain or that it has a cryptocurrency making it work. I suspect that a higher and higher % of new users will not know about this ether and that people will use Steemit without knowing about blockchain in the same way that people use the internet today without knowing about the http protocol.
Sorry to hear about your illness, glad that you seem to be doing better now. When did you first hear about cryptocurrency and how did you become involved in it?
You said, "system that gets users as interested in what they can do with their cryptocurrency tokens that they can’t do with fiat systems". Not quite sure what you meant by this?
That is a good point that if attain mass adoption, most users won’t even realize they are using a blockchain.
I mean when there exists desirable things they can’t do with fiat. For example, earning tokens from writing and commenting. Beyond that is for example displacing all the centralized databases on the Internet, smart contracts, distributed microeconomies/micronations, decentralized speculation, new forms of gamification and monetization of Internet and computer activities, etc..
As I wrote at the bottom of my blog, I read Szabo’s Bitgold in early 2009 after writing something somewhat analogous 14 days before he published:
I heard about Bitcoin sometime after that (perhaps it was 2010), but I was distracted on other life matters. Risto Pietila and I were dealing in physical silver from 2008 to 2009 (we had met on Jason Hommel’s forum). In 2012, he asked me about getting into Bitcoin but I told him I was preoccupied with my illness (which was acute hospitalization in May). In early 2013, he asked whether he should sell $100,000 of silver and buy BTC at $10 and I said yes. I wasn’t able to join him because I had lost $75,000 of fiat in 2012 (side-effect of the flight or fight effect of my illness) and “theft” of my silver and gold over the years. From 2013 to present, I became expert on blockchain technology, having been a computer programmer since age 13 (age 52 now).
My bad I forgot you mentioned having written something analogous to what Szabo wrote. Not many veterans like you in the space now, definitely glad I discovered your blog!
Might want to split up your comment into separate paragraphs.
Extremely well researched post. I reckon the average Steemit user doesn't have the attention span to read it all through, maybe make a series of multiple posts next time.
Great work though! Have you shared this post on any other social media platforms? You ought to.
I will probably share it on my Medium (but I loath having to reformat it for Medium’s editor, probably just insert a link).
I am thinking Steem might be more of a mobile phone reading audience, so the long (and 2 column) format probably does not work for many readers.
And yeah I agree I am going to suffer with the soundbite Twitter generation. Happy to see some younger dudes reading it as this is your future we are talking about.
You're preaching to the choir 😊
The more expedient and effective action may be to get more of the world using a decentralized cryptocurrency and blockchain.
Unique features can help. For example, I have this idea about having forked Reddit-style discussions such as these display as multiple columns (forks) on wide displays. Do something unique that beats Reddit. I have lots of ideas.
I think the Steem model of funding users by earning from upvoting is not the best model because it motivates users to think about ways to get upvotes instead of building a following of interested readers. It seems to motivate writing blogs to do volunteerism to take money from the collective and award it to some group and other topics that otherwise no one would read. Steem’s model is just like the corruption of democracy, motivating groups to find ways to redistribute money and talk about all the good they are doing. Politicians always pander to doing good, but in reality they are just promoting stealing and not hard work.
I want to promote the talents of people and their hard work. Only a small percentage of the people are willing to work hard to develop their talents. So most users are just followers. Yet even if only 1% of the people want to work hard, that is still 60 million people in the world. Hopefully we can get 10% of the people motivated to work hard on developing their talents.
Do you know where we can read about the features currently under development by steemit developers?
I agree that Steemit leaves a lot to be desired.
I don’t know. Try asking @ned or @smooth perhaps?
The distribution problem is always about how to incentivize what we want without enabling gaming it by bots and/or users. It is either not an easy problem to solve, or it might be impossible to solve.
Thanks I just bookmarked both of them in my Steemit folder.
I had an idea today about how users can incentivize people to create constructive comments. Curious to get your feedback on that post if you have the time.
This is well written by user @traincarswreck from BCT:
Bitcoin as the Premise of Nash’s Proposal
i forget how i got here. nonetheless were not just friend, we are more. I can say I couldn't cross the border with the knowledge i had.
omegakoin.com
Hey frankly that is nonsense. The linked web page has not presented any technical information at all.
Additionally your broad concepts are even flawed:
I wrote in my blog post above:
sorry the top link (mirror of k0in.com) is to more technical information, while the front page is just thoughts on how to implement. Thanks for reading.
The main idea here of relevance, is that miner nodes are not rewarded nor do any hashing. No one gets paid, so there is no endgame.
I fully admit these ideas are unimplemented and untested.
Hey I am not trying to be a jerk, but seriously we’ve looked years ago at all those sort of ideas you are having now, and we had realized they are flawed.
For example:
The Quantity Theory of Money has been dunked, i.e. price does respond to changes in money supply (and that is especially true when everyone receives proportionally more coins because otherwise there is a flaw in terms of selecting who the new supply is distributed to). I even mentioned why in this blog. In fact, it is more likely to have spiraling effect where your increase in coin supply causes volatility to increase as people are incentivized to speculate on hoarding more coins to amplify gains.
Identity can be rented, purchased, gamed, and otherwise controlled by those with the most resources. Nothing is cheaper than proof-of-work as alternatives are economically equivalent to proof-of-work.
This is analogous to a research paper on proof-of-stake.
I could debunk all your ideas, but I had already done so many times on BCT and I do not have time.
Sorry.
i'm surprised you've taken the time to reply. Thanks for your feedback.
wow just wow ive been looking for something like this being new to the world of cryptocurrency . its a long read but well worth it thank you
Noting There
good thread very informative nice
)
Where did you find this gif? Will upvote response!
This is deep stuff here. Learn or burn.
Resteemed! The truth is out there.
If this post were a burger:
Great post, thanks for sharing!
Im following you !
Resteeming this to my followers. Hope it helps a little.
The world currency with block chain system began with the Paris Global Financial Climate Agreement to start a cashless world... Resteemed.
France Agrees to Pay All Costs for Turkey to Sign Paris Climate Accord. Tie that in with Merkel’s corrupt involvement with the despot dictator of Turkey on a secret plan to continue bringing in millions of migrants whilst Merkel is indicating before the German elections that she is going to crack down by deporting migrants.
Edit (after 2 users voted): I realized I do not want those people in third world countries to think I am against them. I want we create blockchains to empower you! Migrating as a form of theft from the locals (via the government wealth redistribution aka welfare system) is not an equitable solution that creates prosperity. I do not want that society unnecessarily creates more dependents, but rather empower all of you to be the best you can be.
Your presentation is very professional & well researched. Peoples should read more, but most of them don't know or care what's going on. I think that PTBs are in control to centralize the crypto currencies with cashless society. https://steemit.com/bitcoin/@euni/centralization-or-decentraliation-blue-or-red-pill
What if we are able to create a decentralized crypto which they can’t control?
I am still working on this. I am a programmer.
More details will be forthcoming this year. I am moving into an intensive phase now that my health is normalizing.
I think that its possible with the new programming language utilizing quantum algorithm. If you can make this happen, you will save peoples when believers cannot buy or sell. godspeed!
My design doesn’t require anything that cutting edge. It is reformulation of the structure of a blockchain, the longest chain rule, and the validation, such that proof-of-work is not required, it is not proof-of-stake either, and thus in my analysis thus far economies-of-scale do not weaken the decentralization. It also provides sub-second confirmations and unlimited decentralized scaling.
My heart prays that Almighty Christ gives you wisdom, power, & health to finish the task to help us all ^^
Good work and so good post..
Hi I viewed your intro. Your country India is attempting to rapidly phase out cash.
Are Indians getting turned on to cryptocurrency? I hope we can find more ways to bring your country into cryptocurrency and especially a truly decentralized cryptocurrency that no corrupt officials can control. I do not know if this is a priority of yours, but thanks for reading and commenting (otherwise I would not have known you read it).
I see you are interested in art, crafts, and music. I hope we find more ways to apply cryptocurrency and blockchains to diverse interests and activities.
In my younger years, I was interested to travel to India.
Namstey@anonymint i don't know what to call you..this is Richa,thanks for liking my intro and my interests..in my country most of population not even no about cryptotechnology and like wise but on higher level yes we the peoples liking the concept of this virtual currency..i like your suggestion...and feeling good to know about your India love..thanks for that..keep in touch..following you..
Excellent Richa. My name is Shelby Moore.
Hi shelby nice to know your name..
You probably already know this. Try to accumulate and hold cryptocurrencies and advise your friends to do so as well. You will become wealthier and also enrich your lives in other ways that technology can provide.
What we want is for decentralized cryptocurrency (i.e. that nobody can control, so can not be corrupted by those who have power) to supercede the government’s ecash, because the government is always corrupted (even if they are making the people temporarily happy by for example providing health care and
indoctrinationeducation).In theory nobody can control the Internet, which is why all our lives have been so enriched by the Internet. Before the Internet, we had no way to communicate directly with people inside your country as you and I are doing now.
I like your sketch of the village life and the wood/grass roof hut. Reminds me of my experience when I first arrived in the Philippines in my 20s and created CoolPage.com while living in a Nipa hut.
Anyways thankyou so much for supporting my artwork and for sharing your past experiences with me.i realy thankful to steemit and yes internet through which we are sharing this much.
It only have been few days to be in the world of cryptocurrency and lots of things are still unclear to me but i continuosly learning day by day abot cryptomoney.
Continuing to your words about decentralisation of cryptocurrency yes it will be much better if it is not control by any gov.as they all are always corrupted.
I am thinking to invest my earnings of steemit but presently its not much but i am positive to earn more in upcoming months..thankyou for all your suggestions and liking..keep stay with me as now i am feeling that this community starting to accept
Hi shelby..i was trying to reply you yestrday but server ws too slow..
Great to see a distilled version of your ideas and observations gathered from bitcointalk and elsewhere all in one post. Hope they reach a wider audience.
Yeah I really wanted to have a document with a lot of my past accumulated and distilled in one document.
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STOPI don't wanna!
Very in depth. Thanks for sharing
There is just so much information, you could literally go through this information in weeks, sorry but it was just hard to stay interested, I needed the information in a smaller dose. I understand that a dedicated reader will follow, but I am much more interested in spending my time on aviation related topics, though I am interested in crypto currency and just learning the basics now. Very quality post, hard for a newbie to follow, hope you understand.
Yes I understand. Worthwhile feedback.
I did attempt a summary of my blog.
So much potential still, once it is as easy for grandma's to buy crypto as it is to shop online we will see a huge boost.
Absolutely. But the key is how to motivate them to use cryptocurrency. They need a reason, as well as it being very simple to use.
I will be interested to know your reaction to my (not yet published) onboarding design plan.
Does anybody know if someone has 10SP, how much would his 100% upvote be worth?
lovely post Bitcoin probably already has a lock on the intrinsic value of a reserve currency for cryptocurrencies, and the medium-of-exchange to fiat.good work.....
What we need is a return to competitive currency. As long as this collusion is kept, the wealth of the human race will be consolidated to a few. I believe crypto currency is the answer we've been waiting for.
Well stated.
The danger though is that Bitcoin is not really decentralized (c.f. my replies to @finitemaz on this blog for technical details). So what can happen is that society chooses one globalized medium-of-exchange which is actually controlled by the analogous power vacuum that controls the fiat systems.
This is why I have been working for a few years on trying to figure out how to create a decentralized consensus design. I wrote down my design in an unpublished white paper in November 2016. Then I was taking liver toxic TB antibiotics from January to July, so I was basically a zombie an unable to work. Just now getting back to it. It basically puts all the users in charge of insuring that the system remains honest, but in an automated way (users do not have to do much but make sure they use an honest client software). It does not require that all users be online all the time. It will be interesting to see if peer review will find any flaws in my design when I publish it.
So in summary, I agree we need competition to get the best possible design, but we also have the danger that the best design will not win. So that is why I am putting a lot of thought into onboarding design and economics.
Note it is possible that I have technical and marketing errors in my analysis of for example Bitcoin, Steem, and my own design. Others who have debated me me vigorously at BCT, are apparently not active here yet at Steem to provide their thoughts.
P.S. note I also have a “Knowledge Age” theory I have been writing about since 2012 or so, that fungible money will become less important. Refer to my longer reply to @euni on this blog for more details about that.
Awesome article @anonymint! I have similar thoughts about the global economy and it does not look good at all! Governments keep cheating on people creating money from nothing, no resource, no production and there you go: money! This is not gonna end up well, and indeed the asiatic countries (most of them underdeveloped) have nothing to lose at all, while the West has everything to lose. Let's see what it comes out of this, but I hope any cryptocurrecy may save us! at least the ones who trust them right now! I hope it could be steem! Thanks again and steem on!
Great article! Yes it is coming and I am hopeful we can take that power back from the central banks via Cryptocurrencies! We have seen what they have done in India and now is going on in Venezuela removing the highest denomination fiat bill.
This post is way too long to address all this stuff, but a few things:
Most of your argument revolves around the idea that humans are going into a "knowledge age" and cornering of capital and commodities is useless, which makes absolutely no sense whatsoever. Being a slum lord in the future will always be just as profitable as in the past in a closed ecosystem (earth) of limited resources if you're able to defend said resources.
The drop in commodity prices over time is not evidence heralding a "knowledge age", it's because humans discovered MASSIVELY cheap energy like when oil was cheaper than water in texas, and ever since this has been a game of nothing but arbing excess energy for materials, and now that energy is experiencing collapsing EROI so the arb game is up.
Cryptocurrencies not only have no Schelling point, they have a reverse Schelling point because network effect assumes infinite scalability. As soon as the fees go up, people will be moving into the next coin to avoid usury, and all these networks are highly scaling constrained by design. Death by dilution is inevitable without scaling.
Cryptocurrency doesn't function as a store of value because it's price floor is recursive based on it's own demand (in PoW). This means it's a complete house of cards in terms of so called value storage.
In commodities like silver, the ESF practices Keynesianism in the commodity markets and naked shorts them down to cost of production to try and keep their market caps as low as possible and prevent them from competing with the dollar. Why? Because nobody would submit to slavery via debt based scam currency at all unless you force them into it.
They can't short metals lower than cost of production because it would create scarcity and be counterintuitive to their goals. However, they can short bitcoin below cost of production because there is no real price floor, only a temporary, synthetic one. This in turn causes the miners to be forced to turn off (like KNC) and the synthetic floor crashes even more until the thing implodes to nothingness.
Another reason why craptocurrency is horrible and not a sound form of money. Metals like silver can be manipulated by shorts to contain their market cap, but bitcoin can actually be destroyed by them due to having no real floor.
5)All cryptocurrencies are inherently rent seeking usury systems and a pseudo form of debt based currency if you will. The PoW chain does not just magically stay up on it's own, it requires a constant upkeep (rent). A peer to peer gold or silver transaction can be done with no overhead cost, but a cryptocurrency transaction always travels through the hands of the rent seekers and will cost > 0.
6)The further you abstract money away from barter, the larger a scam it is.
All I can say is WoW! Thats a lot to process.
crypto is the future hold all the crypto if economic crisis happen all the crypto will sky rocket
Agreed!
This is possible but it is also possible that when the dollar skyrockets 2018ish (see footnote #1 in my blog), that speculative assets take a nosedive first before rebounding and going higher.
This is Armstrong’s SLINGSHOT thesis.
In any case, I advise hodling and accumulation.
I'm surprised that world currency which is controlled by top few governments hasn't happened already, but I'm sure its well under way. The only question is will it be admitted by the other countries peacefully.
BTS Looks Like It Can Be A World Currency :)
gawd ... are you writing this ?
takes me 2 days to create this kind of typing
great post sir
😲😎
seems a new revolution on the cards
Get ready for the jew world order, or as soros likes to call it the order from chaos. NWO step aside this is the JWO.
Long post, i still dont know if this is ever gonna work. ( looking at politics ) even Bitcoin is looked at a criminal currancy at this moment, just cause what it is used for ( on the deep web). having a currancy u can use everywhere is pretty mutch a fairytail except u know of a way to destroy the oildollar system what is here today.
In my comment reply to @bachuslib, I summarized the logic of my blog.
The point is that coming global economic collapse (and probably international war as well) will end up being politically blamed on the strong dollar short squeeze that should accelerate next year with the collapse of the Euro.
That may enable the political will to remove the reserve currency status from the dollar and place it with a power sharing agreement among nations with a world institution such as the World Bank, BIS, and/or IMF. That would not require the nations to relinquish their national currencies and central banks (at least not immediately although another clusterfuck of collapse would ensue some decades later and all nations would become Greece-like debt slaves to the world central bank).
Additionally it appears as though Bitcoin was planted by the elite as a way to force the nations to support a world government so that there can be globally coordinated regulation of cryptocurrency in order to rescue fiat so that the people can continue to get the debt-funded governance they demand.
Nations can complain all they want about Bitcoin being criminal, but no grouping of nations other than all nations can stop cryptocurrency. I explained that in more detail in the last section of my blog and subsequent comments. So I disagree with you, except that I agree it would not entirely replace fiats overnight. A cryptocurrency is likely to excel at things fiat currencies can not do, such as borderless global transactions for example in a global version of the Farmville game where everyone in the world is able to buy in game upgrades without the requirement to possess a credit card.
Armstrong argues that the petrodollar illusion is an outdated exaggeration and apparently Saudi Arabia admits it.
Great article, very thought provoking! We have so much in store for us. There are endless possibilities.
Great post is very large with rich information about coins future
Super super largo, pero valio la pena, gracias por su esfuerzo
Very long post but true anyway. You nailed it to the points.
Great post u got
You could check my write up too @chukamozie
Chuka Mozie:
https://steemit.com/life/@chukamozie/unlishing-you
what an informative venture.
followed you for sure
very interesting post tanx
Keep up the good work with your posts!! :)
I cannot read all this. Is there a short version? ;-)
If it is important to you to understand how to sustain freedom, then you will find a way to read.
Thanks for providing your opinion and feedback. I do understand, but afaics the subject matter is not convincingly explained without being documented in great detail. I do welcome anyone to try to rewrite my blog as their own, condensing it as they wish.
Good post with some solid truth!
Thank you for reading and commenting.
I put several days effort into compiling all the links. There is a lot more information in the links than I can summarize in the text. I hope some readers dig into them.
Ten years ago I was a silver and gold bug (had up to 18,000 oz of silver in 2009). The tinfoil hats probably do not like to learn what I learned since then.
P.S. Everyone who upvotes my blog post and comments, will receive an upvote on their comment from me, unless I significantly disagree with the comment. Hoping some discussion will ensue and I will participate. I’m noticing that Steemit appears to have declining comment activity (as compared to 2016 when I was blogging more frequently) so I guess it is not competing with Reddit. Is everybody too busy trying to earn rewards instead of growing the value of their social network with more networking activity? Is this indicative of something wrong with the model?
Good work Shelby! Already falling into the rabbit hole with your links..
Any planned write ups on your theory behind what's happening with seg2x signaling (maybe fake), the outcome, Jihan games, and effects on Litecoin?
I may make a blog about all of that if I have time. I wrote some private messages and essentially my stance is sell all forks except the original Bitcoin, because afaics that is the only Schelling point is to reject all attempts for various political factions to hijack Bitcoin. In my view, Bitcoin was designed to be the reserve currency of crypto (and has the most value if it remains immutable), not a scaling currency to handle payments on chain. Search this blog for “intrinsic value”, and Bitcoin’s supply being inelastic above the protocol limit of 21 million coins hinges on it being immutable. Besides scaling can not be obtained on chain with any hard block size limit, nor with an unlimited limit. I wrote a summary of my rebuttal to recent Craig Wright’s scaling presentation recently as a Pastebin. I will try to get all that into a blog before the end of the month if I have time. My view is that all the BTC forks are deception for taking BTC from fools and transferring to those who understand that the game theory of Bitcoin is such that it should remain immutable.
I have maintained since LTC was 0.006 that it was going up to 0.05 (again as it did in 2013) before BTC topped out again. Other altcoins have also appreciated significantly including STEEM. Remember my blog 9 months ago coincided afair almost to the day of BTC launch from $600s.
Looks like we are entering a blow off top soon for BTC perhaps $4000+. Not sure if we have another extended multi-month or multi-year correction after that. I have not been following closely the markets as I have had my attention focused on technical work and moreover mostly sleeping (recovering from liver disease and the liver toxic Tuberculosis treatment which I’ve recently completed).
P.S. thanks to @chryspano for the upvote, which made this blog more visible to more readers.
Thanks for the reply, just sent you my first Steem transaction! Do you think Jihan games are just beginning with the Segwit signalling? Will Jihan accept Segwit on BTC? I always thought BTC cant mutate with Segwit implementation, however it's starting to look like this may turn out to be untrue. Thanks Shelby, and glad you're back at it!
Unless Bitmain has a million BTC it wants to risk by selling it on original Bitcoin and buying their own fork, then million BTC holder MPeX had years ago vowed he will sell any fork and buy the real Bitcoin. The crowd will follow the leader as everyone wants a Schelling point.
In other words, the miners have no say in the outcome.
But Jihan isn’t stupid; thus presumably he is bluffing. But for what reason?
When the segwit part of seg2x activates, it still will be the original BTC though. Is that going to happen?
Great post.
very good post. Many thanks
Im supposed to process this on my second glass of wine?
Not likely.
Let's deal with something smaller and easier to process
https://steemit.com/steemit/@davebrewer/opioid-crisis-in-america-is-growing-exponentially-here-s-one-way-our-steemit-community-can-take-action
I responded on your blog.
The drug problem is actually a very complex problem that is ingrained into many aspects of the society. When the USA economy collapses 2022ish, nobody is going to be donating money to try to fix a problem that has to be allowed to crash and burn so that people will learn to stand on their own two feet and stop doing stupid stuff or perish. Middle-aged disenfranchised man are psychologically vulnerable.
Everyone who has had an addict in their family (including my family) knows that the addict has to hit bottom before they may decide to save themselves (and we and others have tried to rescure them). But usually they relapse and eventually perish. Of course with a enough intervention you might be able to extend a few lives (although they usually eventually relapse), but it is not cost effective for society. If you observe a mother cat, she will sacrifice the weakest kitten(s) in order to save the strongest ones if her food supply is too low. Although our resources are not as constrained, we end up making our resources constrained by throwing too much socialism and debt money around without any thought to the amount of debt and wastage we have accumulated. I think the family members are in the best position and most responsible for intervention. I did. Historically the concentric circles of areas of responsibility were parent, family, church, and finally God. Somehow we’ve injected a Frankenstein of wide-scale society into that area of responsibility. We are trying to apply our tribal (small community) instincts at a level of large-scale debt-funded governance, which thus lacks the necessary negative feedback loop.
It is a clusterfuck. Why do you think Philippines President Duterte killed all the drug dealers and addicts who would not reform. He understood that you have to attack the problem at the root and remove the cancer entirely from the culture.
I hope you found in my blog the links to Catherine Austin Fitts and the Gary Webb connection. Dig into that rabbit hole if you want to see how deep the drug trade goes into the CIA, etc..
I edited my prior reply and want to draw your attention to it.
I want to clarify that I am not against intervention and trying to help those who are in need. My point here is a complex one. For example, we end up creating an industry of “help” which profits on keeping people in need of help. This is societal decadence and ends up with a society that is useless, unproductive, and entirely dysfunctional. For example, that industry of help (social workers, etc) supports Merkel’s plan to bring in rapefugees to destroy the national cultures of Europe.
So my point is we need to get back to traditional values and the value of the family. It all begins and ends there. I had noticed that the Steemians had no interest in my prior blog. They only want the decadent “feels good” way. For example, see how the boomer parents doomed the Millennials and gave them the wrong attitude to deal with drugs and life in general. See for example this answer on Quora. The decadence is cultural and also that we are stupid enough to believe that a democracy and society should replace the family, church, and God.
We can not solve this problem with volunteerism wherein the ideology driving that is the one that is causing the drug problem in the first place. It is like a dog chasing his tail. But of course people (including addicts) will always blame their problems on some other thing instead of looking in the mirror.
If all this starts to make your head hurt, then that is reason we needed religion because it can keep the people focused on the correct cultural discipline without needing to think through all the complex interactions of things. Because ultimately economics matters (societies perish and/or get conquered otherwise).
Bottom line is that economics doesn’t have feelings and empathy. And economics matters. We ignore it at our peril and then end up with an unsympathetic (usually megadeath) outcome.
I am going to attempt to coax readers think outside of the SJW’s death trap box. Else they will have to refuse to read and think unselfishly (which what their faithful will do and probably eventually attack…and lose). Even the selfish motivations of SJWs are ultimately self-destructive, but it is “long-con” self-deception.
Edit: I have a new comment post wherein I posit how this relates to the design of Steem.
Why do you think the Chinese and the Russians are vacuuming up every scrap of gold they can get their hands on? Do you think it's just for tradition or are they just silly tin foil hat wearing people who don't know what they a doing?