I thought it would be fitting to make this post given the recent amount of fighting over the bot situation. My views might be seen as a tiny bit extreme but I honestly think the upcoming mass automation movement is something different than anything we have ever seen happen in history before.
What is the Mass Automation Movement?
It is pretty self explanatory, but basically it is the idea that in the next few decades a large portion of jobs currently done by humans will be replaced by machines and software. Specifically, the machines that are going to replace these jobs are not going to need any type of supervisor or human being to run. In fact Oxford released a study claiming that around 50% of jobs currently done by humans won’t exist in the next 20 years. That number is staggering and if it becomes a reality, the government will literally have to rethink how to run an economy. The massive amounts of unemployment would literally leave people with nothing they can do, or are qualified to do.
Sure they can go back to college and reeducate themselves, but most likely if the unemployment rate rose 50% the sectors that they went and trained in still would be overloaded. There is a type of unemployment called structural unemployment, which results from changes in the economy and people usually having to switch to different jobs or reeducate themselves in order to get a new job. In the US it is currently estimated the real rate is 5%, with automation you are talking about increasing that rate to 50%. Even if all those people went and reeducated themselves , there just wouldn’t be enough jobs to go around.
Hypothetical What Could Happen
In economics we are taught that when jobs get replaced its usually good because it creates new industries and more jobs prop up around that industry, but it doesn’t seem like this would work in that case. The amount of jobs created by the automation field would be far less than would be needed to replace the jobs it is destroying. Job shortages are going to leave people upset and angry at companies and the people responsible for their unemployment. Job shortages will also lead to riots if people can’t afford to feed or take care of their families and aren’t being taken care up properly by the government. The tax structure in the country will drastically have to change or there will be a war. For example most places in Europe like Greece and Spain only have an unemployment rate of around 20% and their government and people are at each other’s throats over lack of aid and the inability to work.
The country is eventually going to get split into the rich and the poor. The middle class is going to disappear almost entirely. Those who have the ability to invest in companies that are creating and manufacturing the machines are going to reap the rewards and live comfortably, while those who don’t are going to be decimated. The only solution will be for the government to step up financial aid to those affected by automation, or eventually people are going to start a class war. The rich won’t sympathize with the poor and our already extremely high wealth gap problem is going to get worse. The entire system could have the potential of failing. There are things the government could do force employment such as making sure all self driving vehicles have a driver just in case, but many would argue it would hinder innovation.
I believe that our country has been becoming more split on the wealth gap over time and the automation movement could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back. On one end im interested to see the future and how automation will work , but only the other hand im afraid of what it could bring. If I had to bet I would put my money on the movement disrupting everyone’s way of life for possibly the worse if a class war starts.
If you are interested in the subject watch the video below called Humans Need Not Apply by CCP Grey
- Calaber24p
Great post! Ironically, the same technology that birthed Steemit is going to put a lot of the upper class out of work. Blockchain-based fintech will decimate the financial sector. Honestly, if you could get paid in SD, pay your bills with SD and save for retirement with SP would you even bother using a bank? Me either. Remittances? Payroll? You can send SD around the world in a few seconds. Bye bye banksters...
How about smart contracts? With smart contracts on a blockchain 80 or 90% of lawyers are out of a job. Moving title on a real estate transaction is trivial and can be done on smartphone. At the coffee shop.
And what about insurance? Dan has written some great material on mutual aid societies. Fat cat insurance companies can be replaced by lean, benign aid societies using blockchains.
Finally, governance. Look around you! Steemit is already becoming an efficient, well-behaved society regulating itself through non-aggression. Bad actors are being dealt with swiftly and effectively. Reputations are being built and stateless identities formed. No big gov necessary.
Automation of the industrial processes is definitely pinching the traditional blue-collar occupations. But I think the white collar occupations are partying on the Titanic right now, and there's an iceberg dead ahead.
Agreed, we can't benefit from the technology and then complain about it.
The upper class can never be out of work because they do not really work.
Stop crying face! formerly in the Middle Ages did not exist industry and yet the population lived well . And there is not to say that the population was smaller because at that time had not frabrica of televizao , cars and other consumer electronics.
The rich lived well..... I don't think you have researched that system well....
I thought the same thing after reading the title.
NOBODY gets out of this upheaval untouched, it disrupts all lives.
read my
https://steemit.com/steemit/@matherly/thoughts-on-the-current-state-of-u-s-multicultural-cohesion-chaos-on-the-rise-or-am-i-just-growing-old
"Redistributing economic advantages will hurt somebody someplace no matter what… in the old model, especially.
But today we have a blossoming peer to peer community. And it is such an exciting time to be living through. Average people are finding ways to make the middle men obsolete. Notary services, compliance officers, and other whole payroll departments are looking at the Ethereum technology and watching their jobs done without the employer needing to pay employment taxes (they do as well as their employees) and pension contributions, etc, and so on.
The Writing on the Wall is in Binary Code"
I'm following you, please follow me. thx
This is so true.
Opportunity dances with those already on the dance floor! #inSTEEM
Talk about making a person think and realize that yes this is very close to becoming a reality. Things are changing faster than most want to admit. Kids are getting smarter, which will hopefully protect their future. Everything is evolving into electronics. Jobs are already getting tough to find, even for those who have spent years in college (depending on what they studied). If people are not tech smart, they are screwed in the future.
I see your point and I can agree but think of this: technology has always devolved and people always were afraid to lose jobs because of new machines. Where jobs vanished new came. Just like technology our needs evolve and we will find new ways of staying busy. That's what I hope
The jobs of the future are likely going to require a more educated workforce. The youth will be fine, they will adapt due to their general educated nature, however the older generations still in the workforce will likely suffer.
I see what you are saying, but the point im trying to make is we have never had technology that will do what automation and ai will do. In the past, you get laid off from ford because they introduce new machines that put cars together, so you go and take up a job as a taxi driver, or a cashier. Essentially these technologies will be destroying ALL those jobs in such a short period of time there will be nowhere to go and the small amount of places there will be to go, will be so overloaded they wont be hiring.
That's pretty tough but faces reality. Those who are not well educated will have no jobs. The difference between poor and rich will become worse. We live in strange times.
Anyway, I wish you the best luck bro! I enjoy your posts and will follow you. Can I ask for how long you already are on Steemit? Nice to meet you :)
Yes, I agree with the whole article and we are starting to see a widening between the rich and the poor. However, a lot of automated jobs are boring and will free up leisure time. The miners in the UK in the 1980's thought it was the end of the world when the pits closed but many retrained. Who would want to work down a dark, dingy coal mine anyway but they had running street battles with Police to try to hang onto those jobs. We need to be intelligent enough to adapt to the inevitable.
I think we can adapt but Im not sure if we can do it quickly enough. We still have people who cant wrap their heads around the internet let alone self driving cars which are here. I used to be optimistic and give people the benefit of the doubt , but im not so sure these days. People are becoming frustrated and increasingly turning to radicalism in the US and especially Europe.
It sure will be an interesting next few years. I'm too old to worry about it though, these days I just sit back and let it play out as it will anyway. Great post and, by the looks of it, everyone else thinks so too 😃
The problem is the rich will gain all the resources from the work of the machines.....the poor will be left to starve
This is why money needs to be viewed like equity in the means of production. It should gain purchasing power as the means to produce grows, not lose purchasing power.
Proponents of Basic Income use the scenario you mentioned as reason to start that program now, so that we have a framework in place to deal with the situation. If you aren't familiar with basic income its an interesting economic idea, definitely worth a read.
I think we need to start thinking about a program now, because the billionaires who are creating the technology are telling us that is coming and when it does there is no going back. If we address this at bureaucratic pace, were screwed.
I love your article, scary as hell but still spot on.
yeah lets hope the future is less violent than I think its going to be, but when people dont have jobs or have their jobs replaced, they become irrational.
Not so much id say as losing their job, more losing their security. That's all in reality a job represents is a need to cling to a security blanket.
But awesome post, I agree 100% as time goes on jobs will become more and more scarce and machines will be doing the vast majority of work, it's scary but it also means at that point in human history we have essentially become free and that's exciting.
Technological unemployment will be the thing that destroys our current form of capitalism. I don't think we're anywhere near prepared enough with a contingency as this issue becomes more prolific. Should be interesting and also quite terrifying to watch it unfold.
I was at a conference recently where we discussed artificial intelligence and the internet of things. One of the keynote speakers was talking about the risks of AI and automation. The point of the presentation was that all common, repetitive tasks could be automated. Some examples given were almost all legal systems, the fast food industry, car dealerships, manufacturing etc etc. The one thing that can't be automated is imagination.
Many of us left the keynote wondering whether the presentation was for inspiration or a warning.
Hello @calaber24p. I wrote an article as reply to yours. So a debate could start: https://steemit.com/economics/@capitalism/why-robots-will-create-more-jobs-then-they-could-ever-destroy
When you think about, the largest number of jobs is held in the transportation sector, which is on the brink of completely being disrupted.
Crazy times ahead... for sure.
Well at least all the future unemployees can do steemit :]
I feel there is a strong possibility this could occur. One possible outcome is Communism will rise as the best form to handle the new reality. Once 50% are out of work there will be some kind of revolution. Bear in mind that doesnt have to be totalitarian soviet Communism, but a system where wealth is shared and we all make some smaller contribution than the current 40 hour week, perhaps caring for elderly neighbours or other current philanthropic endeavours. The big issue with Communism historically was the inability of central planning to manage supply & demand, crops rotting in the feilds while the city queues for rationed food. But with IoT, robotics, block-chains etc. the ability for machines to question every individual about their preferences, predict outcomes and plan the supply chain effectively should be possible.
This is ultimately what technology is designed to achieve, humans not burdened by the drudgery of work, it might be utopia.
It's important to remember that an intermediary state - which promotes equity and disintegrates the bourgeoisie -was part of Marx's conception of the progression of a society to full, stateless communism. Where Soviet communism failed was, in part, the transition to that state.
But yeah, I absolutely agree about technology easing the burden of work. I think that without the pressures and stress of making ends meet - doing work that could be meaningless, dangerous, unsatisfying, etc. - much of society would feel more inclined towards kindness, generosity, and enrichment of themselves and others.
I guess the question is, given the ability to do nothing or to do something, what will most people do? Many of us in todays society are conditioned to work, if I was stopped from working tomorrow that would be emotionally disruptive to me, some of my self worth is based on being proud of my career. So its likely I would volunteer, try to be creative in some endeavour. However we also see people in society who appear to have no inclination to work, they arent so much unemployed, as never-employed. This isnt just the very poor, but the very rich too. So where does work ethic come from, given a society of comfort and fairness will we gravitate to creativity, sharing and harmony, or feckless self destruction? I believe its the former, with a subset of the latter, probably not much different than today.
I for one welcome automation.
Finally we can leave this form of slavery behind, where most people spend decades of their lives doing stuff they don't enjoy and is often meaningless anyway.
Unfortunately, I don't think society as a whole is capable of preparing in advance for a smooth transition (eg. by introducing Universal Basic Income, reducing work hours, creating community places/workshops, etc). This way, the change will hit hard and we're in for some rough times. Regardless, in the long run, it's for the better.
Two words: basic income.
I debate this all of the time, and I hear guys like Marc Andreessen play it down, and I think he's wrong but only to an extent. I think there's a major risk of mass automation, especially when blockchain decimates back office jobs in banking (which typically pay good middle class wages) and clerical jobs in law. Then you will have white collar unemployment.
However, I think there are plenty of jobs that can be created - the problem is that our infrastructure and cultural mentality towards technical education is lacking. Society needs to understand that math, programming abilities, etc. are absolute must haves if you want a middle class or better lifestyle in the new economy. There are masses coming from China, India and Russia that are becoming extremely successful in the US because there is a huge emphasis on technical education in those countries. I work in Silicon Valley and we hear all of the time that companies like Google and Apple have very difficult time finding people with the skills to do what they want to do...so those jobs are there. The problem is that there's a couple thousand extremely talented foreigners (and some Americans) who bounce around from tech company to tech company for increasingly higher pay. The jobs are there and will be there - you're just going to have to know how to math/code/blockchain like a boss.
I disagree with your post entirely. I wrote a response here
https://steemit.com/life/@kyriacos/why-the-upcoming-mass-automation-movement-will-only-make-the-world-better
Thank you for good content :)
Im liked, keep write more :)
If the government does not help out the poor.....which it will not.... a class war will start to secure life and resources taken from them.... either way this is inevitable.
Great post and I agree that people are going to be split into rich and poor at some point in the near future. As automation increases, available jobs decrease, and if population continues to increase, how will the government manage the chaos that is created by these factors? If you include individuals who are retired and individuals who are receiving government assistance and entitlements, then our government will not be able to afford the unfunded liabilities. While this scenario is unfolding, kids will continue going to college with a diminishing return on investment with an obligation to repay student loans. Additionally, manufacturing continues to be exported and labor continues to be imported. Even fast food restaurants are experimenting with fully automated operations. This is a complex scenario with a lot of variables to consider. Your post struck a chord with me because this is something I have been thinking about for awhile.
I agree with you and this situation reminds me of when the Roman Empire had massive unemployment due to the Aristocrats importing more and more slaves in order to fill jobs, which was destroying the middle class. Things got so bad that Rome passed a law forbidding businesses to hire slaves.
I work in the a technology sector and have been warming of this very scenario for over a decade. It is now coming to fruition and very shortly, the middle class will no longer exist. If only the elites were forced to share their wealth without the need for revolution...
When the market is working fine - free of restrictions and free of monopolys - than there will be emerge new jobs for the people. The entertaining industry, the healthcare industry, tourism. There are many places, where machines can not replace the humans in the near future. But many people will maybe not fit in this world. Likely there will be a welfare system to prevent civil war. Or jobs that have no use other than give people something to do. But the most important point is: because of the automation, there will be much more value created and abundance would be possible.
fully agreed, and i am following you now. do the same if you wish.
I'm following you as well now. I like your sentence: "The Writing on the Wall is in Binary Code".
Nobody realizes this yet... but it's coming sooner than we expect.
Have you seen the movie called Sleeper by Woody Allan? In the movie everyone has a robot and yet people still work in jobs that the government helps them get that they actually enjoy. A revolution ensues when people become dissatisfied about not having to struggle for anything.
The debate, in my opinion, is not in whether to have AI or not but in how society chooses to deal with its imminent inclusion and whether we have a way to feel useful if most tasks are done for us.
Great post! Definitely something to think about since technology is already taking up a big part of our world...its only expecting that the future awaits more robots and less humans.
This is a great article, thanks. I agree with your points, people are underestimating technological growth and its impact BIGTIME. I have a feeling that were going to reach a panic point and everyone is going to start realizing that nobody really knows what were doing. We keep growing and upgrading but not defining our direction.
It's a very important topic - but I believe those that gave us the FIAT to fight over have plans for this situation as well. Unless you believe His-Story you probably know where I'm going with this.
Thanks for raising an important topic ;-)
So we need to find fields of activities where robots are still useless.
The weakness of machines is in logic-based algorythms. Help your children become creative and inventive personalities. Then they will have a job robots can't do )
Timely, excellent piece. Thank you.
I think we will find solution. With automation there might not be need for such sick greed like we have today. After all we need money to have somebody else to take our garbage out. With automation robots will do it for free.
good !
I could go for a 16 hour work week.
Benefits for all classes, higher and lower, in this community and steem(it) system that anyone may enter into and take part in!
Look forward to learning and growing here.
A key article on this subject is this one from Wait But Why > http://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-1.html
This is very much related to David Graeber's talk with his "what is a bullshit job" question? What is it going to take to achieve some kind of rational balance, either that or just let technology run away from us uncontrolled.
Technocracy Rising: The Trojan Horse of Global Transformation
https://www.technocracy.news/index.php/product/technocracy-rising-the-trojan-horse-of-global-transformation/
A universal income would really help with this sort of thing. Different places are trialling it right now but there is a lot of opposition from people who are wedded to the current socio-economic model.
Great Post , thank you
Marshall Brain, who created the original HowStuffWorks.com site (& retired on it!), wrote a story called "Manna", which I read back in 2003 when he published it for free online ( http://marshallbrain.com/manna1.htm ) - and now, 13 years later, we're seeing the disruption of automation & robotic technology exponentially eating up human capital as we breathe. On the one hand, it's pretty scary, because most of human meaning and community has been built on the exchange of value between people up 'til now.
...but now, for the first time, we come to a real bifurcation in our social evolution, and no-one can predict its outcome on the future of humanity and its effect on the planet.
Scary, yes, but it also presents us with an incredible opportunity - only for as long as AI doesn't remain in the hands of the few.
Google "Elon Musk Open AI" for one entrepreneur's breath of fresh air and hope that might just lead to an unprecedented social reconnaissance if he pulls it off.
..interesting times indeed!
I raise similar questions in my
https://steemit.com/steemit/@matherly/thoughts-on-the-current-state-of-u-s-multicultural-cohesion-chaos-on-the-rise-or-am-i-just-growing-old
I wouldn't be so concerned though, the uppers need food produced etc...
I'm following you, please follow me. thx
As far as I'm concerned, I think it has already disappeared. The only difference is that the true poor get handouts, and the rest don't. But all of them are living life with a lot more worries now.
Yep... right now Greece is at ~28% and young unemployment is hitting 55-60%. It's insane.
If it ever became so bad that there were no more jobs because of automation and people couldn't afford to live they would just have to resort to basics. You'll get a large group of people just start farming and living off the land. That is all we really need to do anyway, just need food and water.
This is really interesting! If companies don't need to pay for labor anymore, would that make the cost of things go down, thereby keeping the economy somewhat stable? That may be a silly question.
Tx for your post. I agree that technology is going to create a lot of changes. I am not sure about the no or lesser jobs. The Luddites already said it during the industrial revolusion. Work is a concept created by people and therefore it is what people do with the situation. The economy is driven thru value creation and it will be determined who has the resources to create the value. If technology will cause that value creation is only with a top few, then you are corret. I think technology will create a more decentralised situation where more people can earn through different means. Steemit is an example of such a development.
Excellent post! Well written!
This scenario is really happening already not just in automotive industry but in almost all industries!
Sooner or later, in one or two generations, the scene on 'Terminator' saga is unveiling whether we like it or not. That said so, our children or grandchildren will likely experience it in their lifetime!
So what will be the things we need to do now in order to prevent it? Any suggestions?
👍amazing post @calaber24p
Great post @calaber24p!
But as the technology is advancing, someone somewhere in this world will do something to counter-attack or to mitigate the bad effects of technology in our everyday lives.
But of course, we cannot quantify the good effects of technology in this moment. Most of the new things that we have right now are just a science fictions decades ago but we are now being used it and more are unfolding without knowing it!
Thanks for writing this up! Soon I'll be posting something to address this.. It's definitely a matter of breaking up old policies.. boy its taking forever to write!
Awesome article! This is already happening to some degree, it seems. However, I believe people and governments will adapt and we will learn how to deal with this in ways we can't quite foresee right now.