The ultimate timing question to me goes something like: The early bird gets the worm, but the second mouse gets the cheese. There is a battle between being first on the scene and possibly scoring big there, but you also have a big chance to miss the mark because you don't understand the market.
This is a thought provoking well written piece by a high rep author. Hopefully you and your 223 votes can score more that $21, which is worth 5USD for your time and work.
Thank you @aggroed! Actually I just stopped for a second to ponder, I don't know if I'm more grateful for the nice comment or for the question, both for sure!
Very interesting question! First of all, what you say is totally within the realm of possibility and happens all the time. The early bird, has a advantage, however that advantage can lose relevance for a number of reasons.
The two main ones being the inability to adapt as the situation changes (especially in startups) and giving up too early. In that case, other lucky person comes in after the worst is over, and benefit from the fact that the early bird flew away.
It's an advantage being an early bird, but some effort is needed to maintain the advantage.