Makes sense. But unknown is how the establishment/big companies will react. Currently they are dumbfucked and not reacting at all as it seems (still in the ignoring phase) or only pathetically (Meta´s "Libra"). But if more and more people choose crypto, they will change to panic mode. And then we will find out what they are capable of, in worst case they bribe the regulators to ban any true Web 3.0 (e.g. declaring any business not having KYC as illegal). Not saying, that it is likely, but possible.
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I think everything you said is extremely likely.
But we also have to realize that there is no such thing as "the government".
There is a full spectrum of government and rulership: at least 200 of them.
We've also seen that it's just not possible to ban.
Everything in crypto is borderless, and the borders are digital and unguarded.
Getting a "banned" token into a KYC token won't be very hard, especially when people are motivated.
In fact those types of backdoor moves will just be built directly into the infrastructure.
We also have to wonder just how effective that flex is going to be.
Governments trying to exert a high amount of control when they are at their weakest?
Seems unlikely that's going to work.
They will flail around like children having a temper tantrum.
They will cause damage like people within a riot.
But none of that actually changes the situation in their favor.
It's just another page in the story of strife.
If we look at the countries trying to hard ban it like Nigeria...
We can see the ban basically has zero effect.
Nigeria is one of crypto's best friends.
The more I learn about Nigeria the more I'm like holy shit what a hard life.
These people are extremely motivated, and they all speak English.
The ban is meaningless to them.