I think we have one more step to fall at the least. Looking at the total BTC that has been bought and sold there is a large open gap between here and there. If you look at the drop in May and the drop in June, I expected in August there would be another identical to those. Many predicted that $12k would be the bottom, but I dont think we make it that far unless there is some serious pain.
I am not prepared to say we break below that to even the next level below $12k, but I would be pretty shocked if we found bottom here. Only way I see that happening is if Ukraine joins NATO, the new borders are accepted as they are, and tensions return to the stats quo for the next 5 years.
Of course if we do find bottom here, we have US presidential elections in 2024 that line up around when we get that juice from the halving cycle, so there is a lot for us to overcome. Of course I do think we can sit in the same price channel we have been for the last 6 months. We could be here until 2024/25. If this is the bottom, I suspect it is going to be a long, painful, sideways crawl for the next couple years.