I think everything you said is extremely likely.
But we also have to realize that there is no such thing as "the government".
There is a full spectrum of government and rulership: at least 200 of them.

We've also seen that it's just not possible to ban.
Everything in crypto is borderless, and the borders are digital and unguarded.
Getting a "banned" token into a KYC token won't be very hard, especially when people are motivated.
In fact those types of backdoor moves will just be built directly into the infrastructure.

We also have to wonder just how effective that flex is going to be.
Governments trying to exert a high amount of control when they are at their weakest?
Seems unlikely that's going to work.
They will flail around like children having a temper tantrum.
They will cause damage like people within a riot.
But none of that actually changes the situation in their favor.
It's just another page in the story of strife.