The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released its long awaited inflation data for November, showing that consumer prices rose more slowly than expected. At face value, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) which is the government’s key inflation measure increased 2.7% YOY, down from about 3.0% in September and below forecasts that had centered near 3.1%. However, many economists are now warning that these figures may not reflect the true state of inflation and that they should be interpreted cautiously.
So why is this report unusual? The November CPI release was delayed and disrupted by a historic 43 day federal government shutdown that shut down the Labor Department’s (BLS) data collection machinery. Because field workers were furloughed, the BLS was unable to collect much of its routine price data in October. As a result, the October CPI report was entirely canceled which is the first such omission in decades. November price data was gathered only after the shutdown ended, limiting the period surveyed to the second half of the month. This break in the normal reporting calendar has economists worried that the numbers are noisy or downwardbiased and not comparable to typical CPI releases.
I have been reading that several experts have publicly questioned the statistical soundness of the November data. The methods used to fill gaps including assumptions around missing price changes could have artificially suppressed inflation readings, especially in core areas such as housing, which accounts for a significant portion of the CPI. Incomplete data for key categories like shelter costs, arguably distorting overall inflation trends. I think many regular folks know how the 'real' economy is goign which is leaving economists uneasy about drawing strong conclusions from it.
Despite these concerns, some policymakers and market participants responded positively. No surprise, the White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett publicly praised the lower inflation figures, framing them as evidence of economic progress and arguing they could justify future interest rate cuts. Financial markets also reacted, with stocks rising and bond yields falling on optimism that inflation might be cooling. I for one don't trust most things coming out of the governement these days so I'm waiting for the shoe to drop and market makers pull the rug from underneath our feet.
Yeah, I think even if it was skewed the other way I probably wouldn't trust it either!
Me either weird times we live in
Interesting numbers, but I’d be cautious too. Government shutdown messing with data collection makes the CPI a bit questionable right now.
Not to mention the current administration wants to sell a narrative so they will go to lengths to cover up whatever they need to for a story.
My major concern is not even the question that are raised but the fact that after the questions are raised, it might be a pity that nothing will be done
As we have seen nothing will be done by those in power they are above the laws
Regardless, my receipts records going back 7 years that the products I regularly buy are all getting smaller and/or the price higher and it's markedly higher than the over-worn 2%/annum figure THEY contend it to be.
On the other end, Retireees and Pensions are sinking on GIC and Bond returns.
Govt Stats are useless.
That's the plan the more they can squeeze out of us the more control they have. They need people poor enough to keep working but not poor enough to revolt. They are pushing those boundaries.
The points about outdated housing data and possible smoothing effects are ones I've been pondering too. Humbly suggesting we always cross-reference multiple sources, stay vigilant yet balanced in our analysis. Your post adds real value to our community, thank you and keep sharing these insights😊🌟
Thanks as an active investor it pays to be informed.
Man I used to trust the numbers the government put out somewhat. Now, the bumblings and manipulation seem to have neutered the whole trustworthiness. When once we were being reported to by the government who was somewhat responsible for the wellbeing of the country and people, now it seems so much like self serving lies to tilt the playing field in the favour of the fleecers.
I took a few economics classes in school and my answer for these results, given the shittiness that has gone on this year, is NO SHIT!
Strange times make for uncertainty and when the needs of the few outweigh the many, there will be greater consequences as time goes on.
The consequences will be on us not those who cause that's the worst part. It's all to serve a greater point of grifting off us until there's nothing left for us to give.
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