Regardless if we are speaking of the stock market or crypto currencies, it is always more advisable to buy and hold instead of trading on regular basis.
When it comes to investing, many investors are afraid of buying at the "highs" so they listen to the so-called "experts" for the right time to get into the market while sitting on their cash in the interim. The fact is that nobody can time the markets consistently. It is time IN the market, rather than market timing, that is the key to long-term investment success.
According to the research firm Dalbar Associates, although the S&P returned over 8% per year over the last two decades, the average investor made only 4%. The reason: trying to time the market. If an investor was lucky enough to have gotten out before a major market decline, he then has to determine when to get back in. Statistically, the odds of both getting out and getting back into the market at the right time are 25%. Who would think about entering a business venture where the probability of failure was 75%? Try to get in and out correctly with two successive times of sale and reentry and the percentage drops in half to 12.5%.
I think of crypto currencies as the stock market in the begining of the 19'th century. Those who buy in now and just hold over der next decade or two will do very very well. People who bought stocks that early (1920's) have seen their investments grow by about 2000 times if they just held on to their investment. I acctualy think that crypto currencies have even more potential, as it is a technology that will likely change the world and the financial system as we know it.
It is also much advisable to diversify you portfolio into several stock/crypto currencies. All eggs in one basket is not a good idea as it is more or less imposible if to predict what a single stock/currency will do in a decade. What is much easier to predict is how the whole market will evolve.
I personaly hold a diversified stock portfolio of 30+ stocks, same goes for crypto currencies, where I currently hold 15 different ones. I am not done diversifying and I just buy when ever I have available capital, that also allows me to cost avarage my way into stock/crypto market. This lets me sleep well at night as I know event if one type of asset goes down I wont be wiped out.
Another great advice is to diversify into several differen asset categories, to mention a few Stock Market, Real Estate, Crypto, personal businesses and other. I personaly have invested about 40% into stocks, 30% Real Estate, 20% personal business and 10% crypto currencies. I am lookin into balancing my portfolio even more by increasing my stake in crypto to about 15% or even 20%.
Warren Buffet, one of the greatest investors in the world once said dividend compounding is the 8'th wonder of the world, along with cost avaraging you got all the tools you need to be a successeful investor.
Another thing I strongly would advise against is margin trading, as this is the road where you are almost certain to loose your investment, ofcourse you have also a chance to make a big win. But if you do it long enough eventualy you will have a position that goes against you and you will expirence a thing called "Margin call" which means that the brooker liquidates your positions and realising your loss. I know this as I have tried it on my own, and I have lost big. There are probably people who manage to make money margin trading, but it is definitely not for the "avarage Joe".
I hope you find this post helpfull and that it gives you more insight in the world of investing, and please if you have any doubt please research this subject on you own.
I am here if you have any questions.
Over and out :)
Zlajoni
Wow thanks. I've made 129 market timing predictions and have been correct 57% of the time. So what you are saying, according to statistics, I'm twice as good as the average investor. Awesome.
You can see the predictions here. I bought TNA when the market was predicted to rise and TZA when predicted to fall.
BTW, thanks to market timing, returns were 30x better than just buying and holding an index ETF such as SPY during the same time period.
Market timing does return better, but as you pointed out, most people suck at it. So it's not that market timing doesn't work, it's that people don't know how to do it correctly.
Don't blame the gun, blame the shooter when the target is missed