Statistically, the odds of both getting out and getting back into the market at the right time are 25%.

Wow thanks. I've made 129 market timing predictions and have been correct 57% of the time. So what you are saying, according to statistics, I'm twice as good as the average investor. Awesome.

You can see the predictions here. I bought TNA when the market was predicted to rise and TZA when predicted to fall.

BTW, thanks to market timing, returns were 30x better than just buying and holding an index ETF such as SPY during the same time period.

Market timing does return better, but as you pointed out, most people suck at it. So it's not that market timing doesn't work, it's that people don't know how to do it correctly.

Don't blame the gun, blame the shooter when the target is missed