Behind the TIB Investors Journal #3: Bitcoin Gets Friday Blues

in #investing7 years ago

I have been trading Bitcoin for a little while now. I keep getting closed out of trades pretty well every week. I am getting the Bitcoin Blues.

BitcoinBlues.png

Trading has been profitable. I would have had great returns by buying one Bitcoin in February and holding it all the way through. Why is that you might ask?

Well I am trading using leverage. That means I borrow the money to buy more Bitcoin than I could reasonably afford. I buy 10 at a time. Because of this I could lose 10 times more than I could reasonably afford. So I put stop losses on the trades that I place. If price drops below the stop loss level the trade is closed out. This protects me from 10 times losses I could reasonably afford. It also means I am out of the trade and need to find another point to re-enter.

What I have been noticing is I am getting stopped out quite often in Friday trade. I am getting Friday Bitcoin Blues.

I love data. Time to dig into the data to see if the evidence supports the observation. So I opened up a chart and drew in lines for every Friday and drew arrows to every Friday. Then I took out the lines so I could see what happened each Friday. Then I took out the arrows for the days when price went up. And I marked all the up days with ticks and all the down days with crosses. I did make one adjustment for Easter - the arrow went to Thursday.

Guess what?

9 Fridays DOWN out of the last 15 - down quite a bit too each time - anything from 3 to 5%. That is not a coincidence. Why does that happen? Two theories.

  1. Traders close out their positions before the weekend to take their profits and trade again on Monday.
  2. Bitcoin miners pay their bills once a week. They sell on Friday to pay their staff and for their electricity costs.

Here is the evidence

May12BTCBlues.JPG

Lesson. I sell on Friday and buy again on Monday. And if you are new to Bitcoin buying - buy on Monday and avoid Thursday afternoon.

Images: MaxPixel for free use - thanks. http://maxpixel.freegreatpicture.com/Acrylic-Abstract-The-Blues-Art-Fantasy-256826

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This is very interesting and helpful. Thank you @carrinm!

:)

Thank you.

Hey there I do a bit of trading to have a few questions
Do you trade any Altcoins?
Do you use any trading tools like coindata
Do watch the coin.igy podcast they do great brake downs to limit risk

I trade all sorts of things but only Bitcoin of the crypto currencies. The only tool I use is price charts. They tell me everything that is happening