The penalty moves up proportionally with time. This means at 15mins you'll make 50% of potential curation rewards, at 30mins 100%. It of course also depends on how many more votes it can make before it reaches 30, a lot of curators vote earlier since its more beneficial getting ahead of others than the penalty they take from curation rewards.
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There was another rule I read somewhere: if you upvote already popular post, you get nothing. Is it true? If so, your post was already popular with the first 2 upvotes. Confused!!!