High probability, that there will be some incident with chemical weapons in Idlib

There are lots of Russian warships and submarines in the Eastern Mediteranean. Syrian forces are preparing for the assault on rebel held Idlib province. There is also some movement of US resources to the region. To top all that, Russian defence ministry has warned, that rebels are preparing an attack with chemical weapons, which would then be blamed on Syrian forces and be used as an excuse for US attack. Some say, there is a real danger of a fight between Russians and Americans. I doubt it. US attacks on Syria have so far been mostly for show and haven't changed the situation on the ground. Russians know that and are not prepared to risk an open conflict. Those ships are probably there, to assist Syrians in their offensive in Idlib with cruise missile attacks.

There is high probability, that there will be some incident with chemical weapons in Idlib and that US, France and UK will launch an attack on Syrian forces, but that will be in the range of 100 cruise missiles, out of which most will be shot down by the Syrian air defence. Russians will stay on the sidelines. After that, there will be celebrations in the western media, how evil Assad has been punished, while the offensive against Idlib will just go on, until there is either total destruction of rebels, or some kind of settlement.