A Thoughtful Statistical Analysis of Murphy's Law, or, WHY the Buttered Side Always Falls Downward!
I Like Toast and Jam
Photo courtesy of Jonathan Pielmayer and http://unsplash.com
"Anything that can go wrong will go wrong!"
That is perhaps the most common statement of a formula long known as "Murphy's Law."
According to an article published in The Desert Wings newspaper in March, 1978, the legendary Murphy's Law was born at Edward's Air Force Base in 1949, and named after Capt. Edward A. Murphy, an engineer working on Air Force Project MX981.
Since its inception, Murphy's Law has accumulated a vast number of variations and corollaries. You can read about as many of them as you like in this self-described ultimate collection.
Today I'd like to share with you my personal corollary to Murphy's Law.
I call it "The 50/50:90 Rule"
What I mean by "The 50/50:90 Rule" is this:
"Given any 50/50 chance, 90 percent of the time the outcome will be the UNDESIRED option."
I've come to this conclusion through long experimentation, study, and analysis.
For example, if I'm trying to win a coin toss, 90% of the time the other guy wins.
If there are two candidates for the job, guess who gets it (nine times out of ten)?
If I can forget either my comb or my wallet - yup, it's usually my wallet that gets left at home.
If I drop my piece of toast, 90% of the time it will land with the buttered side down.
When my glass of iced tea fell off the ladder as I was hammering nails in my shop, it had exactly two choices:
- It could have, (quite harmlessly, apart from spilling the contents), landed almost anywhere.
- It could land directly on my smartphone, destroying the display.
Is there any question in your mind which of the two paths it took? And, I ask you, how damn smart was that phone of mine, anyway, if it couldn't even dodge a falling glass of tea?
Busted "Smart" Phone
Photo courtesy of yorkali and https://pixabay.com
I have since learned...
Through my review of The Ultimate Collection of Murphy's Laws, I have since learned that others have made similar observations about The Law. However, I believe that my statement of The 50/50:90 Rule is the most universally applicable formulation.
What do You think?
I hope that you find my corollary, The 50/50:90 Rule, useful in interpreting the events in your own life. Feel free to share your observations by Replying below.
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Interesting post, excelebte point of view my friend @ creatr, congratulations.
All things are like this, you know that 90% of the world sales only do 10% of the sellers, and 90% of the world beer consumption is consumed by only 10% of the population, I really have no idea why But it is so
I appreciate your valuable time in visitary comment my post thank you very much my friend
I appreciate your visit to my blog, friend @jlufer! And your observations about these numbers.
Your support and encouragement makes me smile a lot! ;)
we live in an entropic and fallen world. I would say that your perspective is realistic, creatr. The one caveat being that the law applies to things--not people
Ah, then why am I aging so fast, physically? :(
Or perhaps you mean this?:
exactly!
Entropy at its finest my friend! Thanks for the thoughts. It reminds me of my challenge in finding resolution between predestination and self-determination. What if both.
Hey there, Andy! So nice to meet you; I'm glad you stopped by...
You look relatively new here. "I are an engineer also," and I've followed you to hear more about you.
FYI, I've created a Table of Contents to my Steemit blog, to make it easy for you (and everyone!) to browse my articles. Enjoy!