Mars Independence 7/12: Energy Roadmap
Solar Start - Kilopower Bridge - Fission Forever - Fusion Future
Elon’s current plan is simple: flood Mars with solar panels and Megapacks. It works great... right up until the planet-wide dust storm that lasts six months and cuts sunlight to 1-5 %.
We love solar. We’ll still use a ton of it. But independence means never praying the sky clears.
- Phase 0 (2031-2033): Solar + batteries as the very first layer
- First 27 000 Optimus androids land with ~400 MW of foldable solar blankets + Megapacks
- Total shipped mass ~2 000 tonnes – basically the Starship cargo margin anyway
- On good days: 1-2 kW per android, plenty for digging and building
- Reality check: during a big dust storm (like 2022 or worse) output drops 90-95 % for months
- Phase 1 (2032-2035): Kilopower takes over the base load
- 10 kW units shipped flat-packed, one per 20-30 androids at first
- By end-2034 we have 2 000+ units → 20-25 MW firm, 24/7/365
- Dust storms? Kilopower doesn’t even notice. Tested in 2018, zero moving parts, just heat → electricity
- Solar keeps running on top when it can – free bonus energy
- Phase 2 (2036-2038): 100 MW-class Fission Surface Power (Martian-built)
- Design locked by NASA/DOE today, first unit shipped 2034, copies printed on Mars from 2036
- 100 MW continuous, 40 % efficiency, fueled once from Earth then runs decades
- At this point solar becomes “nice-to-have” – fission is the new baseload king
- Phase 3 (2039+): Compact fusion arrives and laughs at all previous limits
- 1-2 GW in one or two Starships, whenever Earth commercial fusion ships (2038-2042 window)
- Energy so abundant we’ll run arc furnaces at night for fun
Real numbers (rough but plausible)
2033 android city (27 000 units + first humans): ~25 MW average need
- Solar alone: 400 MW nameplate → 5-25 MW real in storm → colony dies
- Solar + 2 000 Kilopowers → 25 MW firm + solar bonus when sunny → survives forever
2037: one fission plant → 100 MW firm → growth unlimited
2039: fusion → per-person power higher than Monaco
Key Takeaways
• Solar + Megapacks are the perfect cheap start – Elon is right
• Kilopower is the unbreakable bridge that turns “hope” into certainty
• Fission in 2037 closes the energy gate forever, fusion in 2039 makes it ridiculous
Reply if this makes the solar-vs-nuclear debate feel settled for you 😊
Next chapter: 8/12 – Closed-Loop Life Support & Food Independence
Vertically hung solar panels are the solution to dust.
They also double as fencing, marking off each settler's property.
They produce more power than horizontal panels over a longer period of the day, thus reducing battery capacity required.
Very easy to install. Just hammer in a post and string wire or rope and hang the panels like washing. The wind pressure on Mars is so low there is no problem.
See https://peakd.com/mars/@apshamilton/new-solar-power-concept-for-mars
BTW: You haven't explained what kilopower is.
BTW: I think you are exaggerating the impact of dust storms.
Worst case is reduction of solar insolation to 5% of clear sky conditions based on the Opportunity experience. But this was probably mostly dust on the panels themselves rather than actual reduction of solar insolation.
Vertical panels fixes this.
Also dust storms don't last 6 months, more like 3 and the insolation isn't worst case the whole time. Opportunity was just in a bad location.
With vertical solar panels widely distributed and well positioned the drop in solar production won't be 95% or even 90%. More like 50-70%.
The solution is just more solar panels and cutting energy intensive industrial production during dust storms.
Land for solar panels is unlimited on Mars and solar panels can be very light weight. Their power to weight ratio is much better than nuclear.
Vertical panels will definitely help reduce the risk to dusk build up which will help. However, so storms do reduce sun a lot. Large batteries will help, but not for the big ones. Here's some examples.
Here are the approximate durations of three Martian global dust storms, based on NASA observations and scientific analyses:
2018 storm — Began late May/early June 2018 (detected around May 30–June 2). It rapidly became planet-encircling by mid-June, peaked in late June/early July, and began decaying in August. Elevated dust levels persisted until mid-September to mid-October 2018, with the full event lasting about 4–5 months (the period of severe global impact and low sunlight was several months, ultimately leading to the loss of the Opportunity rover).
2007 storm — Started in late June/early July 2007 and expanded globally over the following weeks. It lasted several months (roughly 3–4 months of significant activity), severely impacting the Spirit and Opportunity rovers (which survived in low-power mode).
2001 storm — Initiated in late June 2001 (around June 25–26) near Hellas Basin. It quickly became global, with major activity largely subsiding by late September 2001, though the atmosphere remained hazy into November. The core global phase lasted about 3 months, with periods of near-total sunlight blockage up to that length in affected areas.
Global dust storms vary in exact length depending on how "duration" is defined (e.g., from onset to full decay vs. peak intensity), but they typically persist for weeks to several months, far longer than local or regional storms. The periods of extreme dimming (90–99% sunlight blockage) often span 1–3 months during the peak.
Are you sure the sunlight dimming is 90-99%?
This seems quite extreme and I doubt the rovers could actually measure this. They could only measure the reduction in their solar output based on horizontal panels that would obviously get covered in dust.
Vertical panels won't suffer from this.
I have both vertical and horizontal panels in a place where it doesn't rain for 6 months a year and there is plenty of dust. The horizontal panels get covered in dust quickly and need to be cleaned regularly.
The vertical panels stay perfectly clean and almost never need to be cleaned. Wiping off some bird poop is all.
The difference is night & day.
Yes, it's from NASA. Apparently they measure atmospheric optical depth (tau, where higher values mean more blockage).
During storms, the issues is less about dust settling, but about the blockage in the air.
Seems like around 0.6–0.7 tau is normal. Storms have reached over 10.
The most prominent example is the 2018 global dust storm (Martian Year 34):
It peaked with a tau of 10.8 at the Opportunity rover's location (Perseverance Valley).