Let me provide you and your readers some scientific facts from a professional. You you know there are lot of opinions out there regarding Venezuela and limited facts. I will provide a few bullets from an Oil and Gas exploration geologist's professional view:
with a disclaimer, that the current US aggression by the present administration is illegal and illogical, in my opnion
Now away with the opinions and into the facts
- Venezuela's current HC reserves ~300 BBOE (#1 in the world), but it's HC production is ~1M bopd (#18th). Compared to that US production is about 22M bopd (barrels of oil per day)
Reserves
Production, current EIA
As recently as year 2000, Venezuela used to produce about 3.3M bopd, production have been declining due to lack of infrastructure, mismanagement, lack of investments.
Any production increases will be beneficial to the people of Venezuela (yes, it will also be more beneficial to the companies, likely US companies)
The reserve number of 300 BBOE is deceptive, as perhaps 80% of that is heavy oil, hard to produce and refine. But US refineries in California and Texas can handle that crude, because lot of the California crude is also heavy (San Joaquin Valley oil fields)
It will not be easy to increase production overnight, it will take tens of years of stable governments and investments to see meaningful improvement
If US policy reverses in 3 years, nothing will happen that is meaningful, both to the people and to the infrastructure
Maduro is a bad guy, he is not a democratically elected leader of the country
That said removing just him and leaving his government and army intact does little
Since US oil companies are publicly traded, no meaningful investment will happen overnight, other than posturing. Investment takes many years and can happen only if there is visible stability
People of Venezuela will benefit directly in investment in oil infrastructure happens, they will NOT benefit from posturing or imminent policy reversal
To our best knowledge, there is no war on ground. US did not invade Venezuela. Yet, the military action is indeed illegal as per international law. I must also add, that Venezuela is NOT under US control, not yet anyways, no matter what anyone claims.
PS. I think the current US oil production and consumption chart in historical trend may also be helpful
https://afdc.energy.gov/data/10324
I am happy to report that we have kept our consumption (demand) more or less flat in the last 20 years, high was 2005; while we have been able to increase domestic production (supply) steadily over the last 20 years (against sustainable backlash from the public). So we kept demand fixed and increased the supply. That led to reasonably flat to down oil price. I like to point out that is good for the common people.
Also US doesn't currently need foreign oil. We are a small net exporter currently.
Thank you for your response and that information. Most of us are not in a position to asses the practical claims of this action (about oil production). All of that really is beyond me and not part of my consideration here. I'm just thinking about the legal aspects of what we do. To me, law is very, very important. Law is what separates an autocracy from a democracy.
Of course there are no perfect or even near-perfect democracies. We in the United States have certainly never come close to our ideals of 'freedom and justice for all'. However, we clung to those ideals through the years. It even seemed for a while that we were getting closer.
We abolished slavery. We passed a Civil Rights Act. Direct election of Senators. Women's suffrage. All these steps were meant to bring us closer to the ideals (most of us) believed in. That's why presidents in the past have given often transparent excuses for going in to other countries and taking what they wanted. They were giving lip service to our country's ideals, ideals most of the people believed in.
Those presidents didn't want to be held to account for patently illegal, immoral, actions. That's what's different now. This president doesn't expect to be held to account. That is a really offensive and scary notion.
What has changed in the country? Is the culture so radically different that we are not offended by naked aggression? By outright exploitation? Will the people in this country object, or have we crossed a threshold, one that violates core principles I believed in all my life.
As for this being an invasion: he said. "We had boots on the ground last night at a very high level. Actually, we're not afraid of it. We don't mind saying it, but we're going to make sure that that country is run properly."
Please note in my blog in each cited instance of an invasion I used the word 'claimed' to have control. The Chinese did not have control of Tibet when they marched in, but they claimed to have control. The same might be said of Albania and Belgium. Surely there was resistance in those countries after the initial invasion.
Trump claims to have control. Does he? I don't know. Making that a reality is going to be a lot harder than I think his limited imagination allows.
Again, thank you for your response. Maybe I'm naive. I don't believe the U. S. is 'exceptional', but I think we have exceptional goals. I like to try and measure my leaders by how closely they attempt to achieve those goals.
Before we say US has this or that we must answer the philosophical question: what is USA?
I think there was a time when these things are equal or very close to it. Now it is not.
It’s an interesting time we are living in for sure.
A fascinating question. Instead of talking about the USA, I think of a 'country' with a much longer legacy: China.
What is China? I go back through its history and its many iterations, from the very foundation of its culture. Over the centuries, China has expanded its territory and its territory has shrunk. It conquered other lands, and it has been conquered. And yet we, and they hold to an idea of 'Chinese'. I think if China, if Chinese, is anything it is the culture that has been passed down for thousands of years. It is the idea of China, which persisted through Mongol rule, that persisted through Mao and that exists even today.
What is the U.S.? I think, extrapolating from my look at China, the U. S. is an idea. It is not racially or ethnically uniform (neither is China). It is an idea that was born in 1776. It is an idea that has inspired people like me for centuries, an idea that has inspired constitutions and popular movements around the world.
Is that idea dying or dead? It is not about this president. He is a catalyst, or maybe a symptom. Has the culture changed? Not in me.
By the way:
I think we have a list.. you better believe it !
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cd0ye72r4vpo
I believe it. Going to take a lot of oil to pay for all that....
A symptom.