Fact vs Alternative Fact
There is no such thing called "Alternative Fact"
The first time I heard this phrase is from Kellyanne Conway on national television where she was wrongfully defending something that was false. Now, the phrase even has a wikipedia page! My goodness, the world we live in!
"Alternative facts" was a phrase used by U.S. Counselor to the President Kellyanne Conway during a Meet the Press interview on January 22, 2017, in which she defended White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer's false statement about the attendance numbers of Donald Trump's inauguration as President of the United States.
I can't believe that I will ever write this, but let us explore what fact is!
A fact is a statement that can be verified. It can be proven to be true or false through objective evidence
For example: following things are facts.
- Earth is round (I am a geologist, damn it! That has to come first)
- 2+2 = 4
- Freezing point of water is 0 degrees celsius
I am sure you get it. Facts are things that people do not argue about. There is no need to argue about such things. Yet today, that is wishful thinking!
Source: Project 538 simulation outcome of Electoral College Result as of Nov 02, 2024
Election Result
Prediction
Well the above image is a simulation based on various polls. Project 538 was created by Nate Silver, and for the record, no matter how good a statistician he is, he and his company predicted last two election outcome incorrectly! But hey, past performance does not guarantee future results! For a while fivethirtyeight.com is predicting a close to toss up election result with a slight bias towards Trump victory which is well within the 4% prediction error. I do a lot of prediction on outcome of a well result: whether it will get hydrocarbons or not; and I can tell you a 50/50 or a 49/51 simulation result is as good a not doing the simulation at all. You can just say "I don't have the first damn clue"!
Now you have the result!
In little more than three days time, we will have the result, and we will know. I have a hope that life could be this simple, but it is obviously not. I always thought, as the votes are counted, we get a final factual number that is firm (it is firm, I am certain, but a lot of people don't believe it!). In a state like Texas, with 18M registered voters; 12.6M people voted (let us assume, that is 70%), 6.5 M voted for the Republican candidate, 6M voted for the democratic candidate, 0.1M voted for independent or whatever. That is the result: Republican candidate wins. In fact, by the late election night as 90% votes in Texas have been counted, perhaps the Republican candidate (let us assume the senate race, Cruz vs. Allred, and not the presidential race) will declare victory and the democratic candidate accept the loss graciously! Alas, that will be wishful thinking these days!
Oh yes. The most discouraging aspect of what's going on is not the sham, the hoodwink, the hustle. It's the number of my fellow citizens who don't see through it. And, the number of my fellow citizens who are not offended by the hate. Very distressing. But, whatever happens, we'll deal with the result and the sun will rise next week.
I say the sun will rise just fine the next day too and beyond.
You know another funny thing, this place being crypto a whole bunch of people were showing me polymarket as a prediction tool! I don't know if you are aware but it is a binary option trading platform backed by crypto community. People say here people have money on the line so this is "real prediction". Well it's not. People do have money on the line and people will take profit before the Election Day:) See what is happening now:
My husband is a poker player and familiar with gambling culture. He tells me about the bets people place--how much weight someone will lose by a certain date, for example. That's real money too. And just as reliable as the polymarket (which I don't understand at all).
As of today, nobody knows anything.
Polymarket is exactly as he describes poker bets. A binary option is a financial exotic option in which the payoff is either some fixed monetary amount or nothing at all that expires at a given time. Polymarket is effectively a betting platform where you can bet on anything and everything. People there are traders or wannabes. They are just trying to make money.
Is it just my perception or are people in crypto are mostly pro-trump? To me you seem to be in a minority. That said I do hope that Trump doesn't become our president once again.
What I don't understand is the Latino vote that seems to favor Trump. They seem to understand that he is against their kind, but they miss the good old times pre pandemic and seem to be voting with their pockets?
Yes, most crypto people are pro Trump. They generally like de-regulation. They like Elon who has become a Trump crony and equally unhinged. These are all facts.
Not just Latino vote some of the black votes in the south is also leaned Trump. There are good reasons for it. I don’t know if you listen to podcasts but I recently listened to a very well researched piece; do take a listen
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/the-daily/id1200361736?i=1000675188251
I hope the link works.
If that doesn’t here is the YouTube link
Apple requires a sign in, but youtube works.
Listen to it if you have time. It is incredibly well done. If you don’t know about the South, this will help. I am hopeful we will pull our weight in the south. That said, we have to do a lot more for the people in the upcoming years.
I did listen to it and it is very well done. I learned some new things like the black voters feel betrayed by Obama and that the border-line legal gimmick that Trump did with putting his name on stimulus checks actually worked big time for him with the black community.
I remember Obama's first acceptance speech with hope. I remember crying most of that speech, I was so moved. I believed every word, and cheered him with every "yes we can!" Yet after two terms I have seen a whole lot of things that I expected will change didn't. He didn't have the support of the congress most of his second term and he couldn't do a lot of things he wanted to do. Nothing happened to me me personally, I am not in a economic group where politicians matter that much. However, many people, black people have their heart broken, and this is true.
Then people from middle america, the hill billies, raged a grass root movement of hate which was very successful, I must say. They said to like minded people that "when you put a black man at the white house, this is what happens". So we got Trump. He destroyed a lot of things this country have created over the years. It is often easy to destroy and not easy to create.
It's getting pretty crazy with all of the stuff that is out there anymore. It's not even like it is a gray area anymore, it's just blatantly false, but they seem to spin it however they want. Even when confronted with the fact that it is false, they just say that you are a MSM sheep or something like that. Besides spreading inaccurate facts, not being willing to accept actual fact is just about as bad!
This is why this stuff in dangerous. There is a requirement to have some sense of reality. I need to be able to say that sun rises in the east, and not have an argument about that!! You know what I mean?!
yeah, I totally agree with you! Who would have guessed one hundred years ago that we would be arguing about whether the Earth was round or not. I thought that was a done deal!
I tell you, social network to blame.
If one hermit decides to believe earth is flat, he/she can and it is okay for that person to live in a hole. But now he can talk to 10 hermits for the rest of the world and they amplify.
I totally agree with you. It used to be the people went down to the bar and spouted their crazy opinions and everyone just thought they were drunk. Not so much these days!
I wish it was this simple, but I think there will be so many challenges and irregularities coming out of this election, that it will hang in the balance for far longer than it should. I am quite fearful that we won't have an outright winner by the end of the week.
Oh I agree. I am dreading Tuesday!
Hopefully it will be peaceful this time. Last election was chaotic and the stuff you read on twitter. People easily believe posts that can be easily verified if true or not.
Yes, I recommend not reading twitter at all :)
There's at least one flat earther on HIVE, - lasseehlers. These people do exist!
Oh I know. I was thinking about him when I wrote that :)
Famous, for the wrong reasons!
wow, I never heard of the alternative fact thing what a nonsense 😅
one could argue salted water doesn't freeze at 0 though 😇
As a non American I just want the elections to be over with so everything can continue, the outcome will greatly influence the future of Ukraine though.
I can only imagine counting so many votes will take a long time so we will be waiting for the result some time...
yes, salty water does have a lower freezing point, that is also a fact :)
keyword: salty
Am not a US Citizen but i just love trump and wish he holds he white house, every one loves him and i dont know he gets everyone attention. Wish i can cast my vote from here
If you are not an US citizen there is no way for you to vote from anywhere.
Also for the record: I do not like Trump.
Also for the record: Trump hates people like you. So that you know.
Seems in terms of politics we are on the same side at least
Lolzzz for the record i know i cant vote as a non citizen its just a figure of speech. Anyways trump ruled for 4 years did he do any thing wrong to get the US to hate him this much?
Sad to read that - why you love Trump? Please elaborate - I simply can not understand any reason to like or vote this guy. Tell me just one single reason to vote him especially as non US citizen
Are you serious u dont love trump? So you didnt enjoy his 4 years being president in the past? Hmm why then do folks all over africa love him. Well for me I've listened to some of his talks and he always hits the nail where it hurts, he speaks his mind regardless of who he offends and dont give a fuck if hurts their feelings or not so long he tells what you doing his wrong or right.
Seriously lol? Trump is playing racist card not only this election - what has he done for you guys in the past - especially for Africa? I hope you are simply joking or his propaganda did work.
Hmmm tell me why do you guys over there hate him so much depite the fact tht he is one of you, maybe am not seeing things from your angle
I am not living in the US but I am old and experienced enough to know what he wants to achieve with his event and speeches - surprised someone in Africa even considers him as trustworthy to be honest :-)
Just to end the discussion - his key message since ages is "America First" - that is enough - the Nazis used that one in the past in my country which ended in a disaster - he wants to kick out immigrants from the country, he will cooperate with China and Russia - he hates everyone not of Us American origin - if that does not ring a bell how dangerous it is globally i do not know what else to say.
Hmmmmm it really is, well am glad i learnt this sooner so i can stop moving with the blind
I fear Trump might win - and the voting structure in the US seems strange - how can someone be elected with less total votes across the country? The method per state seems to play in favour of the blonde "id..ot" - fingers crossed he will not win.
I am sure you are aware of electoral college: the way it works, for presidential ballot, if a candidate can win the majority within a single state, even if by one vote; that candidate wins all the electoral votes in that state. That is why currently there are 7 states (swing states) where the voting matters. In fact one can narrow it further. If a candidate wins Michigan, Winconsin and Pennsylvania; there is a 95% probability that candidate will win the presidential election. No matter who gets more vote. That is the law.
Yeah I know and read about this system indeed (which is different towards our voting system - not saying one is better than the other)
Fingers crossed the swing states will decide the election AGAINST Trump! It wpuld be a disaster for the entire world if he wins
With politics, it's always "twisted truth" and of course, wishful thinking.
That is true, no denying
Yeah one thing both the underdeveloped and developed countries have in common.