Friday Market Musings

Is the Crypto Winter over?

Here we are, mid-December now, and this bear market has now officially lasted longer than the previous one. Are you watching that? I don't to be honest. The bull market also went completely differently, I have heard, so it is not very strange that this bear market is also going differently. The only big question now is really, have we hit the bottom yet? Or should we expect a much bigger wick to come down on us? I hope for everyone that it won't happen, but I'm not sure about that. It's actually not looking very good for crypto in general at the moment. There is way too much going on, let's put it plainly, there are way too many bad apples in the basket. And we will have to get rid of that ...

Panics around Binance?

That actually automatically brings me to the panic that has arisen around Binance. Many people do not believe the numbers that Binance recently published. There are also rumors that the US authorities are going to sue Binance… and these two things together resulted in many people all moving their crypto away from Binance in a very short period of time. They all thought, Not my keys, not my crypto!

But is this panic justified? Of course, thrill seekers always only write about the side that Binance has seen numerous very large withdrawals. However, they forget to mention that there were also deposits, and they had equivalent volume! I have no insight into Binance's finances, of course, and just like you, I have to assume that CZ is telling the truth when he says that all assets are backed 1:1. Time will tell, but the saying: Not your keys, Not your crypto!, is becoming increasingly important. Well, I am convinced, if Binance were to fall ... then we are all f * cked!

So let's just hope this isn't going to happen and that this was just a storm in a teacup.

Brazilian CBDC

Amid all this crypto market violence, Brazil unveils plans to launch a CBDC in 2024. That is of course not new. The Bahamas, Nigeria, and Jamaica have already preceded Brazil in this respect. And as we've known for ages, many other countries are looking into this. But yes, we are waiting for this. A Central Bank Digital Currency. That has no difference at all with the dollar, euro etc ... Then you still have the centralization. Well, there is not much we can change about what THEY do or don't do, they usually do exactly what they want. The only thing we can change is what WE do or don't do.

Cautiously positive news too!

But there is also cautiously positive news to report, and I would like to close with that today. According to Blockchain Analysis Bureau Santiment, there are tentative signs that we are entering a phase of Accumulation in the crypto market and if that's true, it would mean that we have left the previous cycle behind us. If this is true, it would mean that a new cycle is about to start!

BTC Whales are buying!

Since the last 9 days, the Bitcoin Whales have been buying huge amounts of Bitcoin. The wallets that own between 100 and 10,000 Bitcoin on average have added about 726 million USD in Bitcoin to their wallets in the past 9 days. This seems to indicate that they at least have confidence that crypto is far from dead. That the rate is going to recover, and even more ... they are already multimillionaires, and most importantly, they are used to putting their money to get what they want. And that is of course even more money. The fact that they are betting on even more Bitcoin for this is cautiously positive news for the entire crypto market. In any case, Santiment dares to state in their message that the Accumulation phase has begun. And you know what this means, right? The Accumulation phase is the phase before the bulls start running again!

Be careful though!

Don't get TOO happy right away, because the Accumulation phase can take a while, and a new bull is not expected immediately next week. Prices will not suddenly go up very quickly, either. If indeed we have now entered the Accumulation phase, this will mean that crypto will only make small movements in price for the time being, in short ... we will probably see stabilization. And let me be honest, that too is welcome news. Stabilization would be good! And certainly if that turns out to be a build-up for the next bull. I can't wait for them to run again. Unfortunately, I'll have to wait a little longer before I'll see that again...

But anyway, I hope you get into a Christmas mood with this cautiously positive message.