We are getting closer and closer to the land launch date. This is very exciting, and will usher in a new age for the SplinterLands.
Many people are 'meh' on this right now in the mav server. If anything, I am happy that everyone doesn't feel like I do - great excitement. Some people say that land is 'not a game'. They would be wrong, but they have the right to think that.
A funny thing happened, and my mind has come around to the idea that common plots with cheap cards will be very attractive, so read on to see how I think this could be an onboarding opportunity if it is marketed correctly.
You can check out my last post about this here, when I was still just running the numbers in my head. But here's the good part, when I ran the numbers:
Now these numbers are really good. Its napkin math of course, but with the really conservative grain price, I think the apr numbers for common land stuff will be very attractive.
There are a few things to break down here.
Does that mean that better assets will have even better aprs?
No, it doesn't. This has to do with the amount of money you have to put up. Expensive assets and expensive plots will produce more overall, but likely much lower apr numbers.
I went through this with dCity. The smallest cities had the highest aprs, even as people were complaining that the 'whales', with way smaller apr numbers, were earning too much.
Minimum marginal investments almost always hve the best aprs in games like these - its just math and I would have to do another whole post to dive in and defend this axiom.
Do we know the price of grain?
No, we really don't. With a pretty conservative 0.1 DEC per grain, which it could get to over several months, the aprs are still really good at today's prices though. I think there is some reason that the fall of the price of grain could be slower than most anticipate. Mainly - a lot of grain will be needed.
First of all, every base PP in the game will consume 0.01 grain per hour. And PP (although with bonuses) will only produce 0.02 grain per hour, minus a 10% tax it will be 0.018 grain per hour. So we can do a simple calculation of 0.01/0.018 and get that 55.5% of PP will be needed to produce grain - just to keep up.
Yes there are bonuses, but the more bonuses people put on grain plots, the less they will be able to put on SPS and research plots, the less they will be able to put on castle and keep plots.
Plus, we will soon see a DEC:GRAIN LP, which will need to be filled up. So even if we see 60 or 70% of the PP producing grain, it doesn't necessarily mean that that excess will only be driving the price down, it will be filling up the LP (which depending on how it is entered, may drive the price down in some cases, just to be complete).
So what's the onboarding plan?
To me, it seems like a really fun way to test out the ecosystem, for someone that has never heard of Splinterlands before, to come in and spend a few bucks - 30 dollars for a common plot, 20 dollars on cards (maxxed rare CL reward cards in my example above, on the right terrain), and 50 dollars on staked DEC - and look to earn between 40 and 200 percent APR.
At such a time when you don't want to play anymore, you can immediately unstake DEC, sell the plot and sell (or rent) the cards.
This is a viable DeFi game! Nothing is really locked up. Buying cards near the burn price gives even more assurance that your assets will retain the value. A whitepaper for land 2.0 gives more of the same. Immediate unstaking of DEC, a product-backed stable coin - seems to be an easy sell.
Who can package this idea up in order to promote? @goldmatters ? Perhaps @bulldog1205 ? Or maybe you think you could use this idea to sell your spreadsheet happy friends on the idea of testing out Splinterlands for a price that is not that far away from another new 'game', which often sell for 60 or 70 dollars nowadays.
I am not a great saleman, I am a numbers guy. Here are the numbers - let's find the right salesman.
And with that said -
What are the risks?
These APR numbers are heavily based on the current low price of common plots and basic cards. If these things go up a lot in price, which they might at some point, it will be less attractive and risky for new players to get in. So these numbers are available now, and to me, it would make a lot of sense to tell people outside the Splinterlands ecosystem about it, aligned with the start of land this Tuesday.
What do you think? Let me know below.