I don't think it will be any other fiat currency that will gradually replace the US dollar as the #1 reserve currency. I'm thinking more along the lines of crypto and legacy financial systems merging and the role of Bitcoin becoming more predominant. All of this will be very gradual. There will be no collapse. Why? As you pointed out, it will not be easy to unentangle any large currency from the global financial system if it is the currency used a very large number of outstanding long-term contracts.
What I'm looking at is the very long-term future. The sheer potential economic mass of the currently underdeveloped regions of the world is so large that they will eclipse the current developed word. Look at India, for example. It will soon surpass China as having the largest population of all countries. There are many, many low hanging fruits to be picked in India. There are countries like Vietnam that has already seen a lot of development but also its neighbors like Laos or Cambodia whose economies are at a very low level of development. The government in Cambodia is pretty terrible in terms of corruption. But, increasingly, the population are getting access to means of educating themselves as the cost of computing, bandwidth and memory keep falling exponentially. Young Africans are increasingly tech and internet savvy. There are many of them on Hive. These people are the future. Africa has massive upside potential.
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According to population researchers, India and Nigeria are the two countries that will see massive populations throughout the rest of the century. China is going to lost more than half a billion people which will knock them off track.
Like you said, there are huge opportunities there. It is good to see someone else looking at SE Asia because it is an area that I think will explode over the next few decades. That is where the growth will come from along with Africa.
We will have to see how the crypto/defi/blockchain infrastructure rolls out. There certainly is the potential to radically change how things are done. It will take a while before the infrastructure in completely in place.
It should be interesting.
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As an example of a low-hanging fruit is the opportunity for someone to make a fortune by selling and manufacturing refrigerators in rural Laos once they get the power grid built or once solar cells and batteries become cheap enough. Urbanization and modernization are spreading there, too. I recently saw a documentary about the country. The first ever modern shopping mall was built in Vientiane, the capital of Laos, recently.
What crypto/defi/blockchain has potential to do is let people participate in virtual and borderless economies, bypassing their corrupt governments entirely. For example, with cheap hardware and IT infra, some poor little kid in some remote village in some poverty-stricken country will be capable of creating content online for millions of people to enjoy while completely transforming the life of his/her entire family.
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@taskmaster4450le that is why everyone needs to start embracing the crypto/defi/blockchain because that is the future ....