The last days have been really interesting. If for some reason you have been living under a digital rock, it is already well spread news that Justin Sun/Tron bought Steemit Inc.
What a have been seeing around here is three kinds of reactions:
- The usual positive wave that "everything will be awesome now! Steem will moon now!"
- The also usual doomsday wave screaming "RUN TO THE HILLS! THE END IS NIGH!"
- And the majority "WTF IS HAPPENING?!?!?!?!"
Now, while everyone agrees that all the information that have be published so far hasn't been very clear about what future awaits the Steem Blockchain (Not Steemit Inc., that is already settled), after some reading and thought i am able to draw some very solid conclusions about what will probably happen.
But before the stones start to fly in my direction, let me be really clear here:
Part of my real-life job is to try to figure out the most probable scenarios that can happen based on the information that is available, and this article is only this: my evaluation of what we know and what we don't know, and what would be the probable moves of the actors on the present situation. You are free to make your own conclusions.
Now, let's get to the meat of the subject at hand.
First, the facts
1 - First, the obvious: Justin Sun bought Steemit Inc., with the objective to make Steem blockchain part of the Tron ecosystem
I know a lot of people (i.e. @lukestokes - article) already explained that Steemit isn't the same as Steem blockchain, there is no way to deny that both are intertwined.
While in theory, the Steem blockchain as we know today, can exist without Steemit Inc., it would be really stupid to say that everything would be the same without this main company supporting the blockchain.
Without Steemic Inc. there wouldn't be developers being paid to focus on the development of Steem front-end/back-end and it would be way harder to have STEEM and SBD being traded on major exchanges.
So, even with all the disappointments that we endured all these years, without Steemit Inc. support, Steem would probably be way behind in development state.
2 - Along with @ned stakes, the brand, the image and the employees of Steemit Inc. are part of the deal
Again, Tron might not be able to own the blockchain, but everything that is associated with Steem is part of the deal.
That include physical assets, servers, marketing assets, brand, copyrights, comercial relations, employees, and everything else that is owned by Steemit Inc.
3 - There is a final objective, but no final plan on how to achieve it
One thing that is pretty clear on everything that was published by Tron foundation (Including Justin Sun Live stream on 02/16) is that the end goal is to have Steem working on top of the Tron blockchain.
Some of you might not want to believe that, but it is pretty clear on the first official release published:
TRON and Steemit’s development teams will immediately begin working together to bring Steemit and other Steem blockchain based DApps to TRON blockchain
And if you still don't believe this is the final objective, read this:
Together, TRON Foundation and Steemit Inc. will look to create further value for their users and to augment their advancements in decentralized technologies, including moving old STEEM token to a new TRON based STEEM token,(...)
Justin Sun and the TRON foundation objective is pretty clear, even if they still don't have a clear plan of how this will happen:
They want to move the Steem ecosystem to the TRON blockchain
4 - Justin Sun know exactly what he bought
I have seen the argument being thrown around that "he have no idea what he bought".
Please, don't be fools.
The first rumors about this acquisition surfaced on december 2019, and i have no doubts that way before that, Justin and his team were already studying everything about Steemit Inc. and the Steem blockchain.
Even if they started the research only on december, 2 months is more than enough time to an experienced team fully understand all the inner workings of this blockchain.
Also, nobody acquire a net worth of US$ 200 million (estimated) by throwing money at random stuff to see what sticks.
5 - Steem have what Tron is lacking: Active community and diverse dApps
Steem might not look very active right now, but it still have a thriving community.
Everywhere you look you can find different communities with different projects: Content Curation (@ocd, @curie, @qurator), Travel (@travelfeed), Photography (@photofeed), Art(@creativecoin, @onchainart), Science(@steemstem), Finance(@steemleo), Games(@splinterlands, @steem-ace), and a lot others.
And dApps... there is a lot of them: @esteem, @partiko, @dlease, @steempeak, @holybread, @splinterlands, @appics etc etc etc....
Meanwhile, Tron dApps is almost all about gambling.
And it's no secret that Justin's objective for Tron is to make it the biggest and most used dApps platform
6 - Justin Sun have close ties to exchanges
He already owns one (Poloniex), and being one of the top 20 cryptocurrency in market cap, it isn't hard to understand the he have easy access to the major exchanges like Binance and Bitfinex.
This is important to remember, because altough a cryptocurrency/blockchain can exist without the exchanges, it gets pretty hard to it's users get monetary value if there is no way to convert their tokens in "real-world" currency.
And this will continue to be true until we reach the day where cryptos are seen as equal to fiat currencies by everyone.
Also, Poloniex was pretty quick to announce that they will be supporting the STEEM token swap.
7 - Steem blockchain can still exist, even if Tron don't support it as real blockchain (not a Tron dApp)
This one is pretty simple. As we can see by the Tron official statements, their objective is to have a Steemit dApp working on the Tron blockchain.
I might be wrong here, since i am no developer, but i don't think it is possible to have a blockchain work on top of another blockchain.
There is the possibility of Steem becoming a side-chain, but that would mean keeping two development teams working on two different languages.
8 - A token swap means that you are giving one type tokens in exchange for another token
And don't be fooled: A token swap is part of the plan.
It have been stated on the official announcement, on a Poloniex announcement and on as a "migration" on a deleted twit, and also on a Tronlink Medium post that was also deleted:
"Your STEEM token will turn into nothing"
The most likely scenario
Altought i want to be as positive as a lot of people like @taskmaster4450 or @theycallmedan i am worried about the Steem blockchain.
Don't get me wrong here. The Steemit brand, and the Steemit dApp, and the STEEM token will definetly grow in this situation. There is no doubt that it is on Justin Sun best interest to make this deal work.
The problem is: The Steem blockchain as we know is not part of Justin Sun plans.
Here is what i see how this will play out:
1 - Justin Sun acquired Steemit Inc. and it's assets
2 - A big chunk of Steem developers now work for the Tron Foundation
3 - Steem developers and Tron developers start to work on how to "translate" Steem code and tokenomics and how to implement it on the Tron blockchain
4 - With the new Steemit working on top of Steem, Justin Sun start to market it as the real Steem
5 - Justin use it's influence to get all major exchanges to change the old Steem token for the new SteemTron token
6 - The swap starts, Steem users are now offered the new SteemTron tokens in exchange for the old Steem tokens
7 - 90%+ of Steem users migrate to the new Tron version. After all, if they stick to the old chain, they won't be able to sell their tokens anymore, and Tron Foundation have enough resources to provide incentives.
8 - The Steemit Inc. Stake doesn't matter on the old chain anymore, because it will also be swapped for the new platform.
9 - From this point on, Justin Sun/Tron don't care anymor about what will happen with the old chain.
10 - A small part of the community will stay on the old Steem chain (now not able to use the name, because of brand rights), and try to "rebuild" it.
But is this good or bad?
The answer to this question lies more on what you value more on Steem.
As @crimsonclad said on the #witness forum that happened right after the Justin Sun and Ned stream, your stake will still be yours, no matter what happens.
I know a lot of users got here looking for another way to make some extra money (me included), be it creating content, be it investing or speculating on the token.
But also i see a lot of people that percieve another set of values, including freedom-of-speech, and sense of community (wich i became after some time using this blockchain).
Neither of these groups are right or wrong, and honestly, it's pretty useless to judge one side or another.
But at some point in a near future, everyone will have to decide what they are looking for, because a divide between the "Tron Steem" and "Classic Steem" will be inevitable.
And the worst of it all is that, unlike other divisions on other blockchain communities (aka forks), it was possible to be part of both from an equal starting point.
This is something that won't happen here. You will have to choose where you will keep your STEEM.
And i really wish that everyone make the best choice possible.
No matter what happens in the future, i want to give a big thank you to everyone i have interacted with here. This place already gave me a lot of things more valuable than the money i receive from my posts!
(Don't worry, i am not leaving yet, and i will see you around)
Parabéns, seu post foi selecionado pelo projeto Brazilian Power, cuja meta é incentivar a criação de mais conteúdo de qualidade, conectando a comunidade brasileira e melhorando as recompensas no Steemit. Obrigado!
It’s going to be an interesting few months coming up. Smaller players like me will probably gamble on both and see what happens. I’ve invested in Steem but I’ve tried to be conservative so I’m not too exposed of things go south.
I think it would be foolish to not at least try to be in both spaces. The tron version won’t be as impressive, I don’t think, as the Steem version for quite some time but perhaps eventually. There’s a reason that the tron network is mostly gambling, it’s not that great of a chain, I think. Will start exploring more information about it soon.
You are not wrong to think this way, and most of us will think the same.
If thinks play out like I am predicting here, we all will have to make a choice of what we value most: an opportunity to continue be rewarded for our time on another chain, or an independent blockchain platform.
I agree with much of what you said here.
I believe that this post touches the truly important points of this new stage that Steemit and Steem are living.
What if Justin wants to take over Steem Blockchain?
Of course yes. That is your ultimate goal. Steemit was the first step. And it was a huge step, since Steemit is the backbone of the Steem ecosystem.
I think we should be confident. This seems to be a masterful move and it will take time to complete it in its entirety. But I'm sure it will be the best thing that could have happened to Steem in a long time.
Can Steem Blockchain operate in some layer of Tron? The answer is no.
But the Interoperability of these two blockchains can exist.
Where both chains will maintain their autonomy. Of course, Sun will maintain a hierarchical level where Tron will be up.
Finally, it seems to me that the most successful option for all users today is to increase their stake as much as possible.
Both Tron and Steem are based on DPoS consensus mechanisms. So, if you want to maintain your strength and your influence on the new "Steem-Tron" or "Tron-Steem", you will need your SP.
Hi my friend,
I've been testing the tron blockchain a bit and I believe that you are right to point out that steem can't work on top of tron. The main reason is that the transaction costs on tron are simply to high for such a social network to function properly. Each trigger of a smartcontract costs you trx or requires frozen trx. Steem would have to be superposed as a smart contract and most users could simply not afford to pay to vote, to comment or to interact. I believe from a technical aspect, tron would be much better off if the whole social media went on working over the steem blockchain.
When I look at the companies that Justin Sun has bought like Dlive or bittorrent, he hasn't changed their business model and their core concept. I don't know why he would do differently with steemit. What I believe however is that there will be an interchangeability of tokens on both blockchains. Like you can have splinterlands DEC token on the steem blockchain and on the tron blockchain. It's possible that you will have to go through tron to buy and sell steem tokens to access the markets.
Thank you for this exclent comment, dear friend @achim03.
Particularly I have no experience with the Tron chain. From now on it will be indispensable for the steemians to familiarize ourselves with Tron.
Steem can't operate over Tron, buy is totally feasible to make a simulacrum working on Tron chain. If that is successful, there is no reason for Tron to support "classic" steem.
What do you think about the cost of Tron transactions?
Steem transactions are free.
tron transactions are also free.
Just have to stake your Tron (Tron Power) the same way you do here.
You only pay for a transaction if you don't have enough tron power to cover the bandwidth.
Valuable information, valuable comment.
Thank you very much dear friend @phgnomo.
I will definitely have to catch up with the Tron platform.
You are right about that. I made some tests and I had 5 Usd worth trx frozen for Energy. This allowed me to make 1 single free transaction. The second transaction cost me already. After one day, the energy is still not back full. Either you have hundreds of dollars worth frozen for energy or sooner or later your comments, votes and posts will cost you a lot.
actually you could just simply rent the energy within your tronlink it costs you really cheap only like 2TRX/50K energy or so , that way is better than freezing your own trx, i've been on tron for a year as a trader btw, their DEX is just awesome and it would be great to have a Tron-based STEEM inside it because i personally would rather use a DEX than a CEX.
Thanks for mentioning eSteem app. Kindly join our Discord or Telegram channels to learn more about eSteem, don't miss our amazing updates.
Follow @esteemapp as well!
Uncertainty isn’t good. Sun knows that, look at inc’s few posts today. Nice analysis.
I agree. The post seems like a level headed look / analysis / forecast on the situation and next steps
Today posts were employees personal opinions, and not official steemit Inc. Statements.
yep. I’m aware of that and I believe probably it’s their personal opinions too. But 3 team members post around the same timestamp is some sort of PR communication too, to some extend calming the crowd at least.
Anything Justin Sun can buy can be resold after a few years. Maybe steem will be run on ethereum in a few years.
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Sorry, steem on ethereum?
Not happening.
Tron at least use the same model of staking tokens to have free transactions.
It's looking more like the pragmatic approach for many will be to sell stake into the inevitable hype induced pumps, see where the dust settles, and re-buy your stake in your iteration of choice at fresh lows post swap.
I am actually doing that with part of my stake. Depending on how things pan out, it's always possible to buy STEEM back, be it on a platform or another.
Yeah I agree. I'm shit at trading as well :)
Definitely a lot of good information. Lots to think about..
Definitely a
Lot of good information.
Lots to think about..
- darrenfj
I'm a bot. I detect haiku.
Namaste
Arigatou gozaimasu would be a better answer.
not a technical guy but if they did they research they would know that there is no way to do the swap in a short timeline and they were talking about swap it asap as you will not be able to do it after the fact.
They probably made the announcement before the swap was ready trying to hype the news (and pump Tron a bit).
But make no mistake my friend. The swap is coming.
Very good discussion friend @phgnomo, very explained every point. The truth is that every change like this brings with it much speculation, uncertainty and few certainties, we will have to wait and be alert with what happens.
Anyway, thanks for this great article.
That's what I was able to evaluate with the evidences so far.
Let's hope that new evidence come up that will point to a different direction.
From what I've read...you're probably correct.
It's basically a hostile takeover.
They're likely planning on moving all of the Steem capabilities over to TRON and forcing an exchange to either TRON or some kind of SteemTRON token.
Utterly bullshit.
I wouldn't say a hostile takeover. More like a peaceful assimilation.
I honestly hope I am wrong.
Personally I think it is too soon to speculate, I have requested that Justin and the Tron team join the Steemit inc slack and engage with stakeholders and witnesses there. Once that happens we will have a better idea on whether this is good or bad for Steem, only after I talk to Justin will I fully be able to give my opinion. The Steem witnesses and stakeholders are however ready to defend the Steem blockchain if needed.
Hope this talk happens, and the Tron team is open to hear what the community want.
But it's never too soon to speculate.
Maybe soon to take any immediate action, but try to forecast a probable outcame is needed to create a plan of action.
I know your witness are getting ready, but remember to be ready for the worst case.
Resteemed already. Upvote on the way :)
It is took early to speculate things now as the Justin teams deleted their tweets about migrating Steem to tron. I believe the team had a meeting and changed plans.
We, as a community, must work with the little information we have, and what have been published so far only leads to this conclusion.
Something might change, yes, but for now, this is what we have.
And we must make decisions based on the information we have, not on information that might arise later.
If something changes the picture, we adjust the plan.
But there must be a plan.
If the price of Steem had been $8 or more, would Ned have sold Steemit to the TRON Foundation? Why did he sell it? Doesn't he see a future in Steemit? Is he tired of the platform? Or is he sick and wants to ensure continuity?
I don't think ned ever had any real skin in this game.
He was already rich before Steem, and it always seemed to me that this was a project for fun.
I think we can all agree that ned never put his heart and soul to make this work (like Dan do with EOS)
He probably got tired of playing blockchain, and decided to sell and move on.
That's sad to hear... But If you're not gonna play with your toys so pass along them, maybe someone else can enjoy them better :)
There have been lots of unanswered questions when it comes to this issue of steem and tron and I am glad I read this detailed post as it clearly describes what we should hope for and the things we should expect. Thanks for sharing
Thanks for sharing your thoughts here. I love the fact that your analyses are detailed and thorough. Thanks.
Oh dear.
I love my Steem friends. Life is change.
Thanks for the clear analysis. I think.
Thank you for the summary of the situation and your analysis. I support that of "STEEM is dead, long live STEEM!" although to the second STEEM I would add the prefix "TRON-"
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Soon as I saw your title I knew. It was a thought that I had been wondering when I heard the rumors how long has the deal actually been in the works. Would be interesting to explore.
By the way, I really liked point number four.
Dear @phgnomo
I wonder what's your view on this issue 3 days after you posted your article. I'm amazed that Steemit managed to push with communities and released them faster than I expected. It's a good sign. Apparently Justin is pressuring current team to deliver all promisses.
Are you an AI? :)
You made a great point saying that Steem and steemit - both are intertwined. We can try to separate it, but it's just not fully possible.
I'm seriously worried about it - mostly because it would mean that everyone need to downvote in the first place. So all projects and communities relying on delegations, curation trail, auto-upvotes - it would all collapse.
ps.
I've already read tons of comments and it's clear to me, that steem community is breaking into few different groups. It's surely very worrying time for many users. Personally I decided to be optimistic.
Also one thing that people seem to forget is the fact, that Steemit Inc. has been dumping large amount of steem on the market on montly basis (any idea how much did they sell every month?). This created enormous selling pressure. I don't think Justin will follow this strategy.
Many things surely will change and some users will be gone. I expect that mostly whales and witnesses will have a very challenging time adapting. Wouldn't you agree?
ps.
I also just wrote more about my own approach to this issue. (link here). Check it out and drop some comment :)
Upvote on the way :)
Cheers, Piotr
I woulnd't say so. Looks mostly like a marketing move to show "things are being done", than actually moving forward. Kind of smoke and mirrors to reduce the pressure on them.
Not really. Just a Civil Engineer and Project Manager. I learned to be ready for when shit might hit the fan.
The problem so far is that we, as the users and stakeholders, are left in the dark wondering what the future might be.
So far, it all looked like a shallow market move to make some noise, but no real plan on how to proceed.
I would be more cautious than optimistic.
For the brand Steemit/Steem, it might turn out well with a big company backing it up, but what worries me is what will happen to the blockchain.
And everyone that could have some information about it seems very dodgy to answering this question.
You mean there is going to be a split, won't be as ugly as the Bitcoin cash split na!!
Yup, I too was looking to earn money, but I learned that content has value. Steem has rewarded me for my content, for which I worked hard to make it better. There has been a sense of community particularly after tribes and groups. I am grateful for that.
I do expect a lot of controvercies, yup possible, ugliness, possible. I hope for the best. I value blockchain values too, and the vission, motive of the owner of blockchain really matters as well...
Anyway...centralisation, unfairness... I am worried about steem losing its identity, it's all Tron now!!
hi dear @phgnomo
Thank you for your interesting point of view.
Definitely a very good analysis without relying on speculation, I think it is healthier to be optimistic, but as I have commented in other publications, it is better to wait and create positive noise that adds up and adds good values to what we currently live.
Everything will improve, I am convinced of it and I only hope that we will be able to overcome the whole process in the best way and that it will be quick to do so.
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Yes .. Travelfeed is super active, thank you so much for including our community.