Back to another episode of crypto trading. Let's pickup from where we stopped, bias is bad. We're all human, and human got emotion problem. Like it or not, when you stick to one blockchain, that one coin is going to be the best coin for you and you tend to look at it all day and pray for it to go "UP" in value. But again, up against what?! And everybody fall for the dollar game again.
Bias Hive
Here's the deal, when the HIVE/HBD ratio stays below 1, any transaction below this are to be seen BIAS hive. That's because I only need to spend a small amount of HBD to obtain a bigger amount of HIVE. But don't forget, I also have orders on the SELL side, I don't always buy HIVE with HBD, I also park my HIVE to get ready to obtain HBD when the ratio started to normalize.
Bias HBD
This is the part that not many would understand why. Are you here when SBD was $15 several years back? Do you remember your $10 post payout, how many SP you're getting back? This is exactly that kind of situation. You'll be saying Dave you're crazy selling your precious HIVE for HBD. This is nuts. It's already very hard to obtain, and I'm selling it for HBD?! Wait a minute, aren't we talking about the same stuff when the ratio was below 1? And now over 1 you think I'm crazy.
The evil ratio
Not quite where were expecting it would be, it's hovering around 0.175 ratio, because HIVE value is around 0.10. When hive catch up with the raise in dollar value, it will sure hit 0.12.
Here is the evil ratio you can see. What actually drove the market is not important, it's how much you have in hand at the point of time. If you fail to change the number of hodling you have in hand, which means you're defeated by the evil DOLLAR. This table I have included the dollar value combination on the right. At the present situation, HBD is around 0.60 and HIVE is around 0.12. Both representing in USD. Correct me if I'm wrong? Let's consult @coingecko
Proudly brought to you by @coingecko
https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/hive
Exorcism method
Was it confusing? When you look at the dollar value, there's so many combination worth studying! It can go up, it can go down. It can go left, it can go right. With the same 0.200 ratio, there's is thousands of combination can happen. The dollar evil are changing their parameter to trick the ratio move, and we're the idiots who keep on getting blood suck and didn't see them coming. So, what's the best thing we can do? Chase the devil out of the house. Stop looking at the dollar value. Increase your capacity in hodling either one of them. Regardless of price going up or down, we take advantage of the exchange. Form a grid by placing same amount of orders buy all the way down. Placing same amount of order selling all the way up. You'll be saying, BUT BUT BUT Dave, when we selling our HIVE for HBD, wasn't it stupid to own so little? Well, as the chart highlighted, if the grow is organic and accountable, by the time HIVE worth 0.315, HBD would worth 0.900. The debts would have cleared and your post payout would have been fully paid with HBD already. So, what do you worry for? Hold on to your principal, don't fight with the market. Let the market lead the way, and we rip the fruits.
The spreadsheet I created is simple, I wanted to upload the file, but thinking of the vulnerability of spreadsheet sharing and online hosting could be a problem. Drop me a line if you couldn't make your own spreadsheet.
Previous Episodes
Part 6 here
Part 5 here
Part 4 here
Part 3 here
Part 2 here
Part 1 here
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In short, buy when HBD to HIVE conversion is low so that you'll get more Hive for less HBD and sell it when a conversion is high. So that you'll get more HBD for lesser HIVE.
More or less, but you don't decide when is it low or high. Just spread the available tokens across. The idea is short, but not many gets it, and therefore this has been stretched until episode 7.
Uhmm the idea is to hold the coin who has the more chances to grow in value then (value against each other)... It's like a pendulum, when Hive is really low against HBD is actually good to get lots of Hive by purchasing them really cheap... Then when we have the opposite situation it's good to buy lots of HBD with just a few Hive.... Then if you go through this cycles you will end up with a lot of tokens, either of Hive or HBD... So the key is to be able to ride on several rounds of these cycles so you can have much more token than when you started
More or less, but the idea is due to the same amount of purchase and sales are exactly the same, and therefore it will not be balance amount coming back out. We will dive in to this more later as in why we do not maximize the gain on SELL by increasing the amount of hive throwing in.
Ok, I'll catch not later when the other post comes out then... I didn't fully understand the maximize on sell part.
How many HBD do you have now? If market continue to plunge, will you have enough HBD to buy back HIVE? Yes? No? The answer is simple, regardless of the ratio, you bought HIVE with 10HBD, you need to buy back HBD with 10 HIVE. In your heart you know, the center of gravity is always 1:1. With that you will not bias to which to hodl in the long run. We will talk a little bit more about why after 1:1 is no longer important or the SELL become insignificant, but that's fundamental analysis which I wouldn't like to dive too much into it because its way even more subjective compare to technical. So for now, sell 10 hive at 0.20, you'll get 2HBD. Sell another 10 hive at 0.25, you'll get 2.5HBD. That's exactly why it's important.
Was in Episode 4 Had I not sold 40hive, I wouldn't have that 13HBD to trade.
I got some HBD parked at 0.1, but of course HBD is scarce right now... I'm starting to make a spreadsheet of my trades to make sure I get more HBD later on since I started this cycle by purchasing the Hive with the HBD I had in my balances...
That's my point. Somehow you'll have to start selling hive, in order to get back some HBD to continue trade. But we always stick to 1:1. I don't care how much previously I spent 10HBD to get how much Hive, I only know now I wanted to trade 10 hive back in for HBD. Current ratio is 0.13? I will just park at 0.15. So, 10hive will be 1.5HBD. how is this maximize? It's just the ratio game. Imagine when the ratio is 1.15? 😂 That will be 10hive for 11.5HBD just like how we ended up with more HIVE then before now, when the ratio is below 1. It will be ended up with more HBD when it's selling
above 1.