Hey All, the set has been out long enough for people to find decks that work (and even go 18/18 in WR with), and while it's too early to say much definitive, I wanted to share initial thoughts on some of the cards.

TLDR

I like the strong power of the new cards, but more tribal restrictions are needed to keep them from making Power Neutral decks even stronger. Manasurge is not restrictive enough in some cases.

Fundamental Issues

Understanding set goals first requires understanding what was wrong with the meta, which helps explain the new card designs meant to address those problems.

Problem: OP Neutrals

Power neutrals have led to decks like our WR winner this week (18-0):

OP neutral cards lead to the same decks with different food coloring depending on the god. War happens to be the best food coloring at the moment (more on that later).

Not only does this gatekeep top decks behind $1900 price tags, but it also leads to a depressing lack of deck variety.

Solution: OP Neutral Hate

Tribal synergies (and other restrictions) can gatekeep enormous power that isn't available to these neutral-dominant decks. Take, for example, this new card:

Ignore for a moment whether 99 hp light is strong/viable. The goal of this card is crystal clear: you can't use any neutral cards. Maybe it needs a power boost, but this is a well designed card to address the fundamental problem of OP neutrals.

Solution: Tribal Synergies

Mortal judgement gave us very powerful olympian decks that have been very successful. The new set is doubling down with dragon and Atlantean tribes. When done well, these cards also lock enormous power behind deck restrictions that punish OP neutrals.

Problem: No midrange

Earlier sets were an arms race between the extremes of aggro and control. Control got stronger removals and stall, so aggro needed to get faster to keep control in check. Midrange decks like big-beast nature were completely squeezed out of the meta. There's talk of combo decks being the balance, but that doesn't appeal to me (another post). Suffice it to say that midrange decks are what we need, and GU appears to agree.

How do you get midrange? If you make 5 mana creatures stronger, aggro just uses them as top end and gets better. To avoid this, you would do exactly what they've done: allow creatures that reward being played with more mana:

1. Empower from MJ
2. Manasurge from ToF.

Hyper aggro doesn't really want them (exception: white-fur guard). Control doesn't really want 5-6 mana creatures that don't help them remove threats and reach 8+ mana. What gets rewarded is exactly what was intended: midrange.

Blance Problems

I know that was a lot of intro, but whether you agree with my take or not, the above will explain my opinions below.

Lack of Tribal Restrictions

The biggest problem with the set are "tribal" cards with tribal power but no tribal restriction. This isn't an exhaustive list, but good examples:

Scale Dance

Imagine if the manasurge mechanic was:

"Summon a Draka Warrior for each dragon in hand (max 3)."

All of a sudden, you've got an extremely powerful control tool, but the more non-tribal cards you run, the worse it gets. This isn't adequate in my opinion (more below) but is a step in the right direction.

Draka Scout

What about: "At the end of your turn, add a Draconite Shard to your hand if you control another dragon."

Now standard aggro war doesn't run it. Aggro Dragon War loves it.

Replicator Alpha

How about: "Managesurge: Summon a copy of this creature for each Atlantean in the top two cards of your deck."

Now this deck goes away (sorry Gerold!).

Missing the Mark with Manasurge

Hot take: Manasurge control spells are a problem in a way that empower are not. Let's consider:

Unbound Flames is a phenomenal spell. It's modal, so you can use it at 5 in a pinch but you get rewarded by reaching 7 mana. Importantly, though, at 7 mana UF is your entire turn.

Scale Dance, on the other hand works differently. It gets rewarded by you playing your other control spells that you would play anyway. Then, when boosted, it takes a fraction of your mana to play allowing you to follow up with more. This is an important difference that has been missed on a few cards.

This is just raw power with nearly no restriction. Importantly, this feeds the fundamental problem of the game by giving control even stronger removal making midrange harder to achieve. Yes, adding a tribal restriction would be a step in the right direction, but understanding just how strong this card is even in that case is important.

What might help explain my thoughts is an example of a managesurge control spell that I consider good design.

There is no tribal restriction on this card, but I'm fine with it. Why? Manasurge 10. Difficult for traditional control nature. Yes, you can do it with Photogenesis, you don't add these cards to the deck knowing that Swallow Whole is gonna suck most games where you don't have Photogenesis in hand also.

This card needs Vasek Isle, which then pushes you towards an entirely new form of control nature. It's also 7 mana. Not 2. Imagine this card even at 5 mana with the same ManaSurge 10 requirement. It's busted OP. You could combine it with a bunch of other cards that could, for example, clear ward first. Instead, this is a solid answer to control nature having terrible removal at 7 compared to other gods.

Additionally, it's important to note that with Unbound Flames, playing it early at 5 mana is worse than playing Wyrmbreath. The optionality came with a tradeoff. Swallow Whole without being surged follows that design. Cards like Replicator Alpha (and claw and fang discussed below) don't have that tradeoff. The unsurged cards are still good (even great).

Special Mention: Claw and Fang

This card brings a lot of power to the table, but the restrictions simply aren't adequate. Does any control deck have a hard time reaching 5 mana consistently? Even without surge, the card isn't terrible. I'd argue it's a better Auric Rush in most situations. It can go face after all for a 4 HP swing. With Unbound Flames, using it early at 5 is worse compared to the 5-mana Wyrmbreath. Claw and Fang is just broken.

No wonder control war (and basically every other war) wants to run it. I'd argue it's a solid card for aggro war. Compare it to vicious rend.

It's clearly meant to be dragon-themed, so perhaps the answer is a tribal restriction. Maybe you can repeat if you have two dragons on board or in hand (each one contributes their claws/fangs). If you don't go that route, then you have to adjust the power level down. Honestly, I don't want to do that. Like I said in the TLDR: I like the new power. The new cards need to be strong to compete with the $2k decks - they just can't be absorbed by them to make those decks even stronger.

Manasurge 5 is not a meaningful restriction and C&F is still pretty great when not surged.

Conclusion

Obviously not an exhaustive list of cards. There are too many for a single post. Also, I'm aware that crafting cards haven't hit the scene, so it's difficult to compare archetypes yet when some are missing critical tools. Still, I think it's safe to point out certain cards that are working contrary to the goals of the set. (Also, I'm not sure how many crafted leggies we can expect. They might not affect much if they are too rare.)

Thanks for reading!