Star Store Diamonds
The Charging Oryx is in the Star Store for today in meteorite. I missed my opportunity to get more Vanguard Axewomans when they were in the Star Store, hopefully I'll have one more chance. I didn't fully work out the math of what it would cost to get 2x diamonds for a full playset and so I didn't throw myself all-in. So let's do the math now to be better prepared and see what would make it worth it to get 2x Charging Oryxs (or any other Welcome Set card) into 2x diamonds!
What Did It Cost?
Meteorite Welcome Set cards cost 1800 Stars in the Star Store. Let's make a table of what it costs for a single card at various shines.
| Shine | Count Needed | Star Cost |
|---|---|---|
| Meteorite | 1 | 1800 |
| Shadow | 5 | 9000 |
| Gold | 25 | 45,000 |
| Diamond | 125 | 225,000 |
Holy smokes. For reference, I only have 141k Stars right now after purchasing 50 Oryxs and 50 Vanguard Axewomans among various other Welcome Set cards as I aim to own all of them in Meteorite. So right off the bat, it's not looking good for my prospects of picking up TWO Diamond Axewomans.
However, we're only done with part of the chart. We still have no idea how much Forging higher tier shines will cost, or when that will even become available.
Forging Costs
First let's assume they leave it at a flat rate to Forge each tier. Assuming all Welcome Set cards are treated as Common (as their gem color implies, though it is possible they introduce different prices for Welcome Set cards) it would cost 0.1 $GODS per Forge event.
| Shine | Forge Events | $GODS |
|---|---|---|
| Shadow | 1 | 0.1 |
| Gold | 6 | 0.6 |
| Diamond | 31 | 3.1 |
Ok, this table is much easier to digest. With $GODS tanking all the way down to $1 at this point, the price is negligible to Forge a Diamond copy of a Welcome Set card from Meteorite, assuming a flat rate at different shine levels to Forge.
If for instance the price to Forge goes up 5x per shine level, and Plain > Meteorite costs 0.1 GODS, Meteorite > Shadow costs 0.5 GODS, Shadow > Gold costs 2.5 GODS, Gold > Diamond costs 12.5 GODS; then it would actually just cost 12.5 GODS per tier on the way to Diamond (25 Shadows needed at 0.5 each, 5 Gold needed at 2.5 each, and 1 Diamond Forge at 12.5). That would bring the cost up to 37.5 $GODS.
So without knowing the exact Forging costs, this is very difficult to estimate. Somewhere between 3.1 and 37.5 $GODS required to Forge a Diamond from a common! At $1 per $GODS this is still a non-issue but if/when $GODS returns to $4+ for instance...there's a big difference.
Drooling intensifies...
Total Cost and Price Estimate
When all is said and done the final cost is as follows:
| Item | Star Cost | Flat Forge | Exponential Forge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vanguard Axewoman x1 | 225,000 | 3.1 $GODS | 37.5 $GODS |
| Vanguard Axewoman FULL PLAYSET | 450,000 | 6.2 $GODS | 75 $GODS |
So how much will it cost in ETH for a Diamond Axewoman? Well Stars are difficult to put a price on, but those who have played Gods Unchained full time for years have around enough to buy a full playset of diamonds, but not much more. Said another way: there will be very few copies of Diamond Axewoman at first. I also think people will dump Meteorite copies on the market and not that many people are looking to build out diamonds, so they will be relatively cheap.
You can earn an easy 1600 per day with just your first four wins (and then there is diminishing returns), so assuming 1600 per day for 365 days you can make over 500k in a year if you never miss a day. Not many people do this, so we'll use 225k/year as the average.
Time for wild assumptions and price prediction!
If you price your Gods Unchained experience at $50 per week in grinding out Stars, and it takes 52 weeks to gain 225k, then you're looking at $2600 a year in Stars. The amount in GODS is a complete non-factor in my estimation, perhaps the insane amount of clicks it takes to Forge is actually worth a $100 premium.
Normally people underprice and dump and undercut each other until they've devalued their own time greatly. However, in this case I believe these cards will retain their value at first because there will be so few. On the other hand, there are many Meteorite copies ready to be dumped onto the market, likely at dirt cheap prices. This could bring the price down a bit.
We also don't know how much shine bonuses will be, so it is possible that everyone will want diamonds or conversely the rewards are lame and no one wants shines.
All of this being said, and this is NOT financial advice, DYOR, here is my final price prediction!
1 Diamond Axewoman = .5 ETH
I believe this is the price we will see the first Diamond Axewoman sold for! Namely, I'm thinking it will cost around $1500 USD, and who knows what ETH price will do in the future, size of GU playerbase, Forge costs, if Axewoman becomes a worse card (keep in mind it will never be locked), etc. Let me know in the comments how much you think we'll see Diamond Axewoman/Oryx go for!
~Copper
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I think the exponential costs of forging is likely closer to the reality (might even be more harsh than you are suggesting). I don't believe a 0.5 ETH floor is likely for diamond axewoman (though I hope I'm wrong). The floor for Diamond legends in DO is hovering around 0.25 ETH at the moment and thats with a limited supply of these. Assuming forging opens up you could in theory have an unlimited supply of diamond axewomen ultimately the market will reach some sort of equilibrium I believe the markup will end up being slightly above the $GODS cost to forge it. Might can get to 0.5 ETH if it costs 1000 $GODS to forge however if costs are that high that will greatly limit the amount that can be forged. Also interested to see if they make flux relevant with higher shine forging. Either way its pretty much a shot in the dark right now.
There is not unlimited Axewomans, in fact there are far fewer than DO diamonds! They can pop up in numbers every time they enter the Star Store, but it would take a year of someone's life to get 1 diamond. Right now that's just nearly impossible since most people haven't played a full year. There are approximately 20k Meteorite Axewomen out there I think (I feel like it was 16k), someone posted the numbers somewhere recently. Most will be scattered and therefore not forged. Let's say about 20 of them make it into diamonds, that's pretty rare.
If 20 make a diamond thats still more than the current supply of nearly all DO diamond legends. At the moment I have aronud 750k dust, could in theory make 3 diamonds yet I've only ever opened 1 diamond legendary in a pack. Hard to say the general idea if they actually sell at 0.5 ETH that will encourage more people to forge them more people to buy meteorite to sell on the market. Day one will someone overpay for a diamond axewoman? Its possible. I'm looking more at long-term prices and they will reach an equilibrium that makes sense at some point and unless $GODS costs is so high I just dont see it eclipsing diamond legends.
Vanguard Axewoman can be used in literally every deck, most DO leggys are very trash. We shall see! Curious for your price prediction.
I think it was never intended to have costs for forging beyond meteorite quality. The forging costs where introduced as a protection against bots who could flood the market with NFT cards. But there is no reason to limit the forging beyond meteorite in any way. So I would not bet on forging costs beyond meteorite.
There will unequivocally be forging costs beyond meteorite if they want their ecosystem to run. That is how the GODS token gets back into the system, thats how staking works, everything works only if Forging costs GODS.
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