Your reasoning is logical and Powell is likely to continue doing what he is doing. But you have to prepare because if we make a mistake with inflation, the consequences will be enormous.
In other words, we are on the tightrope, accustomed to risk but there is no longer a safety net.
Western economies have not suffered from hyperinflation for a long time, like 100 years ago we did not have a pandemic but everything returns sooner or later.
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You have a better chance of seeing flying bunnies than hyperinflation. The Fed would have loved that. In fact, the central banks spent $30 trillion since the Great Recession trying to get that. It hasnt worked.
We are nowhere near the same world of 100 years ago. Oil proved that. In the 1970s, rising oil prices caused stagflation in the US. Yet in the 2010s, rising oil prices the US to become a net exporter of oil due to technological advancement; in this instance called hydraulic fracking.
So unless technology is going away, all these central banks are screwed.
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