As much as I believe bitcoin will appreciate significantly in value, I am a bit skeptical of the S2F model. It’s critics have a good point that as you go out farther it predicts increasingly ridiculous bitcoin prices which means that at some point the model will break down. There is no way to know when it will break down, and it could very well be now/this cycle. The model works until it doesn’t.
You are viewing a single comment's thread from:
thanks for your very interesting opinion, I appreciate it.... and thanks and thanks for inventing Splinterlands.
Yep I agree. Eventually the stock to flow model will most likely stop working due to the 'law of large numbers' getting in the way. The only question will be is it this current cycle, the next one, or the one after that? A lot of things point towards that $100k number though besides just the stock to flow model, which is why I don't think this will be the time it stops working out...
He said this himself also: S2F may work for one, maybe two more cycles as indeed, the targets start to get ridiculous after that. Nonetheless, he did revise his S2F model into a S2F cross asset model with even more mind-blowing targets.
https://digitalik.net/btc/s2fx