When we talk about a Bitcoin exchange-traded fund, we refer to an investment vehicle that seeks to track the price of Bitcoin, allowing investors to access Bitcoin by market capitalization without actually owning any.

Will a Bitcoin ETF be approved and when?

The approval of the Bitcoin ETF is currently in the hands of the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission). Their protocol involves examining the proposal to protect investors and market integrity. However, questions arise about whether they consistently adhere to this protocol, especially concerning cryptocurrencies.

SEC Evaluation Criteria (from Forbes DIGITAL ASSETS):

Custody: The SEC assesses custodial arrangements for bitcoin to prevent theft or fraud.

Market Surveillance: The SEC reviews whether the bitcoin market has proper surveillance to prevent manipulation, fraud, or other illicit activities.

Liquidity: The liquidity of the underlying bitcoin market is examined to ensure easy trading without significant price discrepancies.

Arbitrage Mechanism: The application must detail how the ETF's price will track the price of bitcoin. An effective arbitrage mechanism is vital for keeping the ETF's price in line with its net asset value.
Although the SEC has received numerous requests for the analysis and approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs from major asset managers such as BlackRock, Fidelity, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America (BofA), among others, approval is expected in 2024. The deadline is 240 days (8 months). My prediction is between January and April 2024, with rumors suggesting it might be delayed until mid-November due to political decisions (November elections). However, Coinbase and JPMorgan speculate that approval is imminent.

What are the types of bitcoin ETFs?

There are two main types of bitcoin ETFs: spot and futures.

• Spot bitcoin ETF

A bitcoin spot ETF is a type of exchange-traded fund that aims to provide investors with direct exposure to the current market price of bitcoin.

In this context, "spot" refers to the immediate or current price of the underlying asset, which is bitcoin itself. A bitcoin spot ETF typically holds actual bitcoin as its underlying asset and attempts to track the real-time price of bitcoin as closely as possible.

There are some spot bitcoin ETFs, such as the 21Shares Bitcoin Core ETP (CBTC), but these all exist outside of the U.S.

• Futures bitcoin ETFs

Futures ETFs do not hold actual bitcoin. Instead, they use bitcoin futures contracts to gain exposure to the cryptocurrency. A bitcoin futures contract allows investors to speculate and bet on the future price of the asset.

Futures bitcoin ETFs can behave differently from spot bitcoin ETFs, and there may be costs associated with rolling over or settling futures contracts. Some futures bitcoin ETFs are designed to provide leveraged or inverse exposure to bitcoin's price, allowing investors to amplify both gains and losses.

Regulations and product offerings may evolve, so it's essential to stay up to date with the latest developments in the bitcoin ETF space, including any new types of products that may emerge. Additionally, the availability and structure of bitcoin ETFs may vary by country and region due to regulatory considerations and market demand.

What happens when a Bitcoin ETF is approved?

If approved, it will be listed and traded on most exchanges.
It allows investors to access Bitcoin by market capitalization without owning any and the price of Bitcoin is likely to rise due to increased demand and allocated funds, but volatility and risks will also increase.

Pros and cons of Bitcoin ETF:

• Benefits:

Liquidity: Easier buying and selling of bitcoins through familiar brokerage accounts.

Convenience: More accessible to investors without the need for a crypto exchange or wallet.

• Drawbacks:

Increased Demand: May lead to a price surge due to high demand and low supply.

Volatility: The market's volatility can lead to significant losses, although risk management can mitigate this.

ETF will destroy decentralization, or ETF is what crypto needs to onboard the masses, or both in one?

I believe ETF approval should be seen positively by the crypto community, as it instills confidence among the masses, indicating acceptance by the traditional system.

It can also arouse curiosity on the part of the masses and make them seek to know more and understand the advantages and purpose that Bitocoin and cryptocurrencies bring to society.

What can happen to the market after an ETF approval?

If you've read this far, you've likely drawn your conclusions. I want to emphasize that I am not a financial advisor, and this is my speculation based on research and knowledge.
I believe the market will experience high demand, a surge in buying during the "euphoria phase," and a substantial increase in Bitcoin prices. In 2024, the anticipated Bitcoin halving could further boost prices, making investments in Bitcoin and viable altcoins potentially profitable. However, risk management is crucial due to market volatility, offering both substantial gains and losses.

• Bitcoin Halving: This is when the reward for Bitcoin mining is halved every four years, designed to counteract inflation by maintaining scarcity. Historical events suggest price increases following halving due to reduced new Bitcoin creation, creating scarcity and increasing demand.

Thank you for reading my first article on crypto and ETFs.

I'm open to new ideas and controversial opinions, as this is solely my personal perspective, not intended to influence anyone's decisions.

And don't forget, pack your bags with $BTC 🤝🚀