The Strength Of Weakness

I noticed a new (?) pattern

Maybe it's still too soon to be certain, but it's starting to look like weak coins are showing proportionally more strength in severe corrections. Take SPS for example, the coin is down over 99% since ATH. But it has traded at current levels for over a year. This means that although the value has completely collapsed, it actually is becoming stronger in comparison to other coins that haven't seen such a strong correction. In other words, if this trend continues, these kinds of coins actually become valuable again since we can trade them for other coins with greater losses.

Let's look at SPS which has lost over 99% of its value. But we can see that the downtrend has perhaps stopped since 2024. Of course that remains to be seen, but price has generally traded sideways since then.

While choosing the starting point of a direct comparison of coins is highly biased, we can see the main idea in the chart below:

While SPS has traded sideways since February 2025 (with a big and short upswing), other Alts like Hive, Ton, Anyone or Sol have performed worse in that period - a lot worse, in fact. Except for Sol which has also traded sideways, but under performed much more in recent months, the other coins have all traded in a downtrend.

So I am thinking that hodling a coin that has essentially lost all its value might actually prove to be advantageous, since it becomes harder for that coin to lose even more value. I guess the general idea is that all sellers are out and only a handful of believers remain. While the caveat here obviously is that just because something lost 99% of its value doesn't mean it can lose another 99% again, I think we have to look at the project to make a decision. Splinterlands is a good example of a project that is persevering and even thriving at all odds. This is reflected in its price that has at least remained stable. Other projects might be in a worse position or simply bad management and could fail. So this risk can only be mitigated with good research.

Conclusion

The crypto space is going to look completely different if this downtrend and bear continues for a year or more. It's starting to turn into a big experiment of how projects function and survive in the most extreme circumstances.

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As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!

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