My guess would be a pretty painful flash-crash at the start of a recession followed by a very slow grind up (even has stocks are grinding down)

This is exactly my hope/expectation as well

Macro trends tell us that Bitcoin is going to $20k, but the exponential trendline tells us we are going to $50k. Honestly I think both might be true. A flash crash to $20k with a hard bounce to $50k is easily possible, and so is the opposite (spike to $50k and a crash to $20k).

Again, this seems very plausible. I definitely think the "big one" is still to come, but it almost certainly will take some more time as it would be strange to just head straight down to that level (based on previous market behavior)