Crypto Analysis | R.I.P. Alt Season - Wen Alt Seaon?

 

BTC.D is climbing higher and higher

Just 2 weeks ago I talked about how we could likely see the start of the alt season very soon. But Bitcoin is saying: "No - I am still king." Here is the chart again showing how we could have seen an end to bitcoin dominance (indicated by the rising wedge):

But Bitcoin.D broke out to the top decisively.

Bitcoin still dominating

Microstrategy is apparently trying to buy another 42 billion $ worth of Bitcoin... Those kind of trades make a mark in the chart and can have a ripple effect. It's clear that ALTs' time to shine has not come yet. We would also likely have to see Bitcoin breaking out to new ATHs before money would be flowing back into them. But I can easily see that still happening relatively soon. Bitcoin has generally started an upward trend at the end of a year and we could see BTC breaking $100k in the coming weeks.

How high can BTC.D go?

There have already been 2 moments when we could have seen a reversal from a TA perspective (shown in the two circles).

• The first time was when dominance levels were rising towards a falling trend line (red) coming from previous highs. This would have been brutal for BTC as the trend reversal would have been in the low 50s.
• The second time was now with the rising wedge which often indicates a reversal pattern.

How high can BTC.D go or wen Alt season?

There is still a chance that this is going to be a fake out.

• We can expand the wedge a bit to the top (including the wicks), but we would then have to see a correction back to around 59% in the coming days.
• There is also the Fib retracement tool which has shown a trend reversal at the 0.618 ratio. This also gives us a top at ~60%.
• Finally, there is also little time left. If patterns repeat, then ALT season "has" to start by Dec/Jan - otherwise there is no room for the alt season if we expect the 4 year cycle to play out again.

If it's not a fake out then it appears that we have rejection levels between 66% and 73%.

• If we connect the two previous peaks we get a trend line indicating 66%.
• 70% and 73% comes from previous horizontal resistances.

Conclusion

I am personally undecided as to what will transpire. There is still a chance for a fake out (but this would have to become apparent in the next days for the weekly close - surprise there is also an election coming up). Yet a run up to ~66% is definitely possible and would also satisfy the "time argument". As such, we could see a stark run up to that level and a harsh correction. This has generally happened in the past when reversals were initiated by such an event.

 

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As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!

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