Calling It: Hive Has Bottomed

Yes, a rather bold statement

But hear me out. Yesterday we have seen a big signal that is necessary for a trend change: volume. For the first time since May we have seen such a big daily volume candle for Hive. Binance has seen over 87M Hive traded and Upbit over 208M. Finally, it seems the whales are back. What makes these numbers interesting is that Upbit used to completely dominate volume, but now Binance is taking a much bigger slice of the pie. While we have seen 6-8 times more volume on Upbit, it is down to around 2-3 (compared to Binance). I believe this is a good development since we don't want Hive to be sitting around all on one exchange.

TA

In the last 10 days Hive has gone up by around 18% and even 45% if we include the pump. While the big green candles are generally short lived for Hive and are essentially always followed by a big sell event afterwards, the price movement of yesterday does signal a trend change for me, since we have seen a lot of volume with it. While I did not check, I would guess that probably almost all of Hive's supply was traded in a single day (around 400M+) - not many coins are capable of that.

I have previously outlined a potential outlook for Hive in which we see the classic "U-turn" reversal. Here is a chart from some weeks ago:

This support at around 8-12 cents seems to be getting confirmed with the pump and volume increase. Sure, it is early to call the bottom, but the combination of positive price movement, increased volume and pattern similarity make me confident enough to do so.

Here is an updated chart:

The pattern clearly stands out to me: a prolonged sideways movement followed by a final dump before a new impulse wave starts. The current chart is primed for exactly such a movement. Also note the volume chandle at the bottom which on the weekly time frame is the biggest since February.

The other point to make is that Hive's price has already crashed over 97% and even 99% when we count the flash crash in October. In a previous post, I argued for two scenario's for Hive bear phase with one being a conclusion at current levels (which is a 85% correction from 2024 highs). Another 95% crash from 2024 seems unrealistic, but I have to acknowledge that it is of course a possibility.

Conclusion

Even though it is always the most difficult to be hopeful at the bottom, Hive's come back seems all but certain. The big green weekly volume candle we have just seen, together with the first bigger pump and the common pattern seen for reversals all signal a trend change for me. If so, it could still take 1-3 months for the bottom to form (see chart) before "lift off", and this could also be a really good accumulation period.

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As a general reminder: Please keep in mind that none of this is official investment advice! Crypto trading entails a great deal of risk; never spend money that you can't afford to lose!

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