how to know which blockchain is going to be a great success

You don't, you have to go with your gut.

what factors count. security, community growth, mining power, and how to make predictions about it. provide some data.

There is no quantifyable data that really can answer this. A blockchain could have great marketing, lots of funding, and turn out to be a rug pull. A small blockchain might have no real team but have a great idea that catches on. You can have everything and not be seen due to lack of marketing or just bad luck.